Self-driving or autonomous vehicle (AV) technology may improve road safety and reduce traffic accidents -- the vast majority of which are caused by human error -- as well as provide mobility for the elderly or disabled population around the globe.
ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) are the core elements of AVs and their adoption in production automobiles is increasing rapidly, partly as a result of stringent safety specifications.
Autonomous Vehicle Market Development
According to the latest worldwide market study by Juniper Research, the annual production of self-driving cars will reach 14.5 million in 2025 -- that's up from only a few thousands in 2020 -- to give a global installed base of more than 22 million consumer vehicles by 2025.
The study found that the market adoption of AV technology is likely to accelerate over the next few years, propelled by new regulatory requirements, environmental pressures, and rapid technological developments.
The market analysts found that driverless vehicles will have a disruptive impact on transportation around the world, and will ultimately lead to millions of professional drivers being made redundant. Juniper predicts that city-based taxi services will be one of the early-adopters of driverless vehicles.
"The introduction of driverless cars will result in fundamental changes to the automotive world and society in general; and it is clear that the boundaries between private vehicle ownership, car sharing and rental fleets will increasingly become blurred," said Gareth Owen, associate analyst at Juniper Research.
However, the study findings also uncovered that following the first-ever fatality in an AV vehicle -- the 'Tesla S' accident reported in Florida -- the automotive industry must convince the public that their self-driving cars are proven to be safe.
Outlook for Automotive Technology Evolution
Juniper found that a number of major automotive OEMs -- including BMW, Toyota and GM -- are accelerating their AV development and testing program, and now have comprehensive plans to launch production vehicles.
As a result, Juniper analysts forecast that driverless vehicles will start to become widespread in the 2020-2025 time-frame -- although they will likely be confined to urban centers initially, due to the need for extensive Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) infrastructure.
The Internet of Things (IoT) communication connectivity technology that enables V2X will be a significant key component for the widespread advancement of autonomous vehicle development and deployment.