Can an alternative smartphone OS option challenge the dominant position of Google Android and Apple iOS ecosystems? A group of new open-source mobile operating systems (OS) are set to make an impact on the mobile industry, according to the latest market study by ABI Research.
Jolla recently released its first smartphone running on its Sailfish OS. Additionally, Firefox will be launching in Latin America and other emerging regions later this year on ZTE devices, and Tizen will be available on new Samsung smartphones in the next quarter.
Also, Ubuntu-based mobile devices are projected to be released in 2H 2013. Amongst the clutter, ABI projects Tizen to become the most notable player out of the emerging OS marketplace.
"Tizen’s strong backing from Intel and Samsung will enable it to quickly outpace its other Linux mobile OS challengers,” says Joshua Flood, senior analyst at ABI Research.
Additionally, other segments of the mobile ecosystem are keen for a new mobile OS to usurp the Apple and Google dominance in the market. Mobile network operators -- particularly in Asia -- have been looking for other options.
Apple’s refusal to modify its OS for operators to add customized services or differentiate operators’ brands is one of the key factors for their discontent.
Tizen has been quick to build its membership group and some very notable mobile vendors are volunteering their support. Orange and Vodafone are two potentially key network operators for making an impact in Europe.
Furthermore, KT, NTT DoCoMo, and SK Telekom have promised to promote the emerging OS in Asia. ABI forecasts Asia-Pacific will provide the biggest opportunity for the new OS and almost 65 percent of its future smartphone installed base will be to this single region.
Although Tizen -- or any of the other emerging OS -- are not projected to make a significant impact on the global mobile OS market this year, the new group of OS platforms is forecast to make steady progress over the next five years, with 135 million smartphone shipments worldwide.
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
Monday, June 17, 2013
138.5 Million Americans Now Own a Smartphone
comScore released data reporting key trends in the U.S. smartphone industry during the three month average period ending April 2013.
According to their latest market study, Apple ranked as the top smartphone manufacturer -- with 39 percent OEM market share.
Meanwhile, Google Android once again led as the number one smartphone platform -- with 52 percent platform market share.
Smartphone OEM Market Share
138.5 million people in the U.S. owned smartphones (58 percent mobile market penetration) during the three months ending in April -- that's up by 7 percent since January.
Apple ranked as the top OEM with 39.2 percent of U.S. smartphone subscribers -- that's up by 1.4 percentage points from January.
Samsung ranked second with 22 percent market share (up 0.6 percentage points), followed by HTC with 8.9 percent, Motorola with 8.3 percent and LG with 6.7 percent.
Smartphone Platform Market Share
Google Android ranked as the top smartphone platform with 52 percent market share, while Apple’s share increased 1.4 percentage points to 39.2 percent.
BlackBerry ranked third with 5.1 percent share, followed by Microsoft (3 percent) and Symbian (0.5 percent).
Note, regarding the market study methodology, data on mobile phone usage refers to a respondent’s primary mobile phone and does not include data related to a respondent’s secondary device.
According to their latest market study, Apple ranked as the top smartphone manufacturer -- with 39 percent OEM market share.
Meanwhile, Google Android once again led as the number one smartphone platform -- with 52 percent platform market share.
Smartphone OEM Market Share
138.5 million people in the U.S. owned smartphones (58 percent mobile market penetration) during the three months ending in April -- that's up by 7 percent since January.
Apple ranked as the top OEM with 39.2 percent of U.S. smartphone subscribers -- that's up by 1.4 percentage points from January.
Samsung ranked second with 22 percent market share (up 0.6 percentage points), followed by HTC with 8.9 percent, Motorola with 8.3 percent and LG with 6.7 percent.
Smartphone Platform Market Share
Google Android ranked as the top smartphone platform with 52 percent market share, while Apple’s share increased 1.4 percentage points to 39.2 percent.
BlackBerry ranked third with 5.1 percent share, followed by Microsoft (3 percent) and Symbian (0.5 percent).
Note, regarding the market study methodology, data on mobile phone usage refers to a respondent’s primary mobile phone and does not include data related to a respondent’s secondary device.
Friday, June 14, 2013
Huge Demand for Smartphones in Emerging Markets
According to the latest market study by International Data Corporation (IDC), smartphone shipments are expected to grow by 32.7 percent year over year in 2013, reaching 958.8 million units -- that's up from 722.5 million units in 2012.
2013 will mark the first year that smartphone shipments surpass those of feature phones, with smartphones expected to account for 52.2 percent of all mobile phone shipments worldwide.
IDC believes that this trend will continue as demand for mobile internet access spreads across both developed and emerging markets. In fact, emerging markets will account for 64.8 percent of all smartphones shipped during 2013 -- that's up from 43.1 percent in 2010.
Strong demand from end users, greater emphasis by mobile service providers, and a deep selection of devices available from vendors at multiple price points are all contributing to smartphone adoption.
In addition, user behavior has switched from simple voice telephony to digital content creation and consumption. As such, the smartphone has become the ideal communication tool for many users.
"2013 will mark a watershed year for smartphones," said Ramon Llamas, research manager at IDC. "If you look at the number of vendors who support both feature phones and smartphones, many of them have not only successfully transitioned their product portfolios to highlight smartphones, but smartphones have become their primary value proposition going forward."
In some cases, smartphones have accounted for well over 50 percent of vendor quarterly shipment volume. Looking ahead, IDC expect the gulf between smartphones and features phones to grow even wider.
With the rise in global smartphone shipments, demand has quickly spread from developed markets to emerging markets. As a result, smartphone average selling prices (ASPs) have declined to $372 in 2013 -- that's down from $407 in 2012 and $443 in 2011.
As this trend continues, smartphone ASPs are expected to drop as low as $309 by 2017 -- with emerging market demand the main catalyst in this change. Computing at such low end-user cost has posed many challenges to handset OEMs and component suppliers.
At a time when the global smartphone market is growing at 33 percent year over year, average selling prices have plummeted, dropping -8 percent in 2012 with another -9 percent expected this year.
One way in which vendors have managed to keep costs down is by continuing to produce 3G smartphones alongside faster 4G smartphones. Using older radio components has proven to be an easy cost-cutting measure for handset OEMs in the smartphone space.
Moreover, 3G-enabled smartphones will account for 70.9 percent of all smartphones shipped in 2013, and 50.1 percent of smartphones shipped in 2017.
2013 will mark the first year that smartphone shipments surpass those of feature phones, with smartphones expected to account for 52.2 percent of all mobile phone shipments worldwide.
IDC believes that this trend will continue as demand for mobile internet access spreads across both developed and emerging markets. In fact, emerging markets will account for 64.8 percent of all smartphones shipped during 2013 -- that's up from 43.1 percent in 2010.
Strong demand from end users, greater emphasis by mobile service providers, and a deep selection of devices available from vendors at multiple price points are all contributing to smartphone adoption.
In addition, user behavior has switched from simple voice telephony to digital content creation and consumption. As such, the smartphone has become the ideal communication tool for many users.
"2013 will mark a watershed year for smartphones," said Ramon Llamas, research manager at IDC. "If you look at the number of vendors who support both feature phones and smartphones, many of them have not only successfully transitioned their product portfolios to highlight smartphones, but smartphones have become their primary value proposition going forward."
In some cases, smartphones have accounted for well over 50 percent of vendor quarterly shipment volume. Looking ahead, IDC expect the gulf between smartphones and features phones to grow even wider.
With the rise in global smartphone shipments, demand has quickly spread from developed markets to emerging markets. As a result, smartphone average selling prices (ASPs) have declined to $372 in 2013 -- that's down from $407 in 2012 and $443 in 2011.
As this trend continues, smartphone ASPs are expected to drop as low as $309 by 2017 -- with emerging market demand the main catalyst in this change. Computing at such low end-user cost has posed many challenges to handset OEMs and component suppliers.
At a time when the global smartphone market is growing at 33 percent year over year, average selling prices have plummeted, dropping -8 percent in 2012 with another -9 percent expected this year.
One way in which vendors have managed to keep costs down is by continuing to produce 3G smartphones alongside faster 4G smartphones. Using older radio components has proven to be an easy cost-cutting measure for handset OEMs in the smartphone space.
Moreover, 3G-enabled smartphones will account for 70.9 percent of all smartphones shipped in 2013, and 50.1 percent of smartphones shipped in 2017.
Thursday, June 13, 2013
Pay-TV Providers Must Enhance Their VOD Offerings
The shift of video consumption to tablets and smartphones is causing pay-TV service provider requirements for video on demand (VOD) systems to change as vendors struggle to keep up with current generation needs, according to the latest market study by ABI Research.
A case in point, I previously shared my own use case that demonstrated how I discovered that the HBO GO internet video streaming service had significantly more content in their archive than the HBO VOD offering from Time Warner Cable.
ABI belives that equipment and system vendors, such as Arris (now including Motorola Home), SeaChange, Cisco, and Ericsson are expected to lose ground to cloud-oriented companies -- such as thePlatform, Synacor, and KIT Digital (expected to emerge from bankruptcy as Piksel).
VOD vendors will see less than 30 percent growth over the next five years, while content management system (CMS) vendors will capture the market and see nearly 100 percent growth to seize half of the total VOD management markets.
Classic VOD back-office systems are built around delivery to the TV via a set-top box, leveraging a single video format, a managed network, a modest number of business models (free, packaged, and pay per view), and a standalone hierarchical architecture.
"VOD Equipment and system vendors have adapted their systems to work on commoditized IT-grade hardware and are enabling multiscreen IP delivery to sit alongside classic set-top box delivery," said Sam Rosen, practice director at ABI Research.
However, based upon ABI's recent assessment, they have failed to adapt to syndicated workflows.
Video content management systems -- which resemble premium online video platforms (OVPs) -- have been used in a number of high profile pay-TV service provider multi-screen initiatives, including Comcast’s X1 project, Liberty Global’s Horizon architecture, and Telefonica’s new Global Video Platform.
A case in point, I previously shared my own use case that demonstrated how I discovered that the HBO GO internet video streaming service had significantly more content in their archive than the HBO VOD offering from Time Warner Cable.
ABI belives that equipment and system vendors, such as Arris (now including Motorola Home), SeaChange, Cisco, and Ericsson are expected to lose ground to cloud-oriented companies -- such as thePlatform, Synacor, and KIT Digital (expected to emerge from bankruptcy as Piksel).
VOD vendors will see less than 30 percent growth over the next five years, while content management system (CMS) vendors will capture the market and see nearly 100 percent growth to seize half of the total VOD management markets.
Classic VOD back-office systems are built around delivery to the TV via a set-top box, leveraging a single video format, a managed network, a modest number of business models (free, packaged, and pay per view), and a standalone hierarchical architecture.
"VOD Equipment and system vendors have adapted their systems to work on commoditized IT-grade hardware and are enabling multiscreen IP delivery to sit alongside classic set-top box delivery," said Sam Rosen, practice director at ABI Research.
However, based upon ABI's recent assessment, they have failed to adapt to syndicated workflows.
Video content management systems -- which resemble premium online video platforms (OVPs) -- have been used in a number of high profile pay-TV service provider multi-screen initiatives, including Comcast’s X1 project, Liberty Global’s Horizon architecture, and Telefonica’s new Global Video Platform.
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Mobile Payments Market to Reach $2 Trillion by 2017
Mobile payments, performed via a device such as a smartphone, is clearly a fast growing sector of the global communications and retail-related marketplace.
In the next two years many more consumers worldwide will be engaging in making mobile payments, according to the latest comprehensive market study by Portio Research.
At the end of 2012, there were 480 million mobile payment users worldwide -- this number is expected to cross the 1 billion users mark by the end of 2015.
Moreover, the figure is expected to continue increasing -- eventually reaching nearly 1.5 billion users by the end of 2017.
Mobile payment volumes -- that's the total value of goods and services and utility bill payments made through mobile devices annually -- reached $81.3 billion worldwide in 2011.
The growth rate enjoyed an increase of 148 percent over the course of 2012 -- to reach an estimated $202 billion.
Worldwide, the market is set to grow to reach $410 billion this year, in 2013, and then volumes are expected to grow at an impressive CAGR of 59 percent until 2017 -- breaching the $1 trillion mark by end of 2015, and the $2 trillion mark by the end of 2017.
Just imagine, that’s 1.5 billion consumers making $2 Trillion in mobile payments within 5 years time.
Near Field Communications (NFC) is also growing as more service providers adopt the technology.
167 million NFC-enabled handsets will ship in 2013. In 2017, there will be 1.67 billion NFC-enabled handsets in use around the world.
By 2017, almost 20 percent of worldwide mobile payments will be transacted using NFC technology. NFC payments will surpass $391 billion in volume in 2017.
There were 516 million people banking by mobile device at the end of 2012. That number will pass 1 billion in 2014, and go on to pass 1.5 billion in 2016.
International mobile remittance is another growing segment of the mobile commerce space. Worth almost $25 billion in 2012, the value of this market will surpass $50 billion in 2016, and $70 billion in 2017.
In the next two years many more consumers worldwide will be engaging in making mobile payments, according to the latest comprehensive market study by Portio Research.
At the end of 2012, there were 480 million mobile payment users worldwide -- this number is expected to cross the 1 billion users mark by the end of 2015.
Moreover, the figure is expected to continue increasing -- eventually reaching nearly 1.5 billion users by the end of 2017.
Mobile payment volumes -- that's the total value of goods and services and utility bill payments made through mobile devices annually -- reached $81.3 billion worldwide in 2011.
The growth rate enjoyed an increase of 148 percent over the course of 2012 -- to reach an estimated $202 billion.
Worldwide, the market is set to grow to reach $410 billion this year, in 2013, and then volumes are expected to grow at an impressive CAGR of 59 percent until 2017 -- breaching the $1 trillion mark by end of 2015, and the $2 trillion mark by the end of 2017.
Just imagine, that’s 1.5 billion consumers making $2 Trillion in mobile payments within 5 years time.
Near Field Communications (NFC) is also growing as more service providers adopt the technology.
167 million NFC-enabled handsets will ship in 2013. In 2017, there will be 1.67 billion NFC-enabled handsets in use around the world.
By 2017, almost 20 percent of worldwide mobile payments will be transacted using NFC technology. NFC payments will surpass $391 billion in volume in 2017.
There were 516 million people banking by mobile device at the end of 2012. That number will pass 1 billion in 2014, and go on to pass 1.5 billion in 2016.
International mobile remittance is another growing segment of the mobile commerce space. Worth almost $25 billion in 2012, the value of this market will surpass $50 billion in 2016, and $70 billion in 2017.
Tuesday, June 11, 2013
Global Mobile Data Traffic will Increase by 72 Percent
The adoption of mobile internet access across the globe is a phenomenal success story for the telecommunications sector. Global mobile data traffic expanded by 69 percent in 2012 and is anticipated to grow by 72 percent in 2013 -- to reach 23,000 Peta Bytes.
Mobile internet usage will continue to skyrocket. By 2018 total mobile data traffic will likely eclipse 131,000 Peta Bytes, according to the latest market study by ABI Research.
"There has been much doom-mongering about this growth in mobile data traffic but mobile carriers should not panic just yet. There are indications that mobile carriers have a number of options to handle the traffic loads," said Jake Saunders, VP and practice director for core forecasting at ABI Research.
Based on extensive research for the resulting report on this topic, ABI has detailed the strategic options mobile service providers can place at their disposal to manage the expanding mobile data traffic outlook.
Radio Access Technology Options: Carriers are commercializing LTE but there are additional benefits to be gained from quickly adopting the LTE-Advanced roadmap. LTE-A’s release 10 introduces enhanced Multi-In Multi-Out antenna technology as well as interference mitigation technologies such as CoMP and eICIC.
A crucial technology is Carrier Aggregation that will allow mobile operators to chain spectrum blocks for substantial capacity and speed gains.
Network Architecture Options: Mobile operators can optimize their network base station assets to make the best possible (re)use of their allocated spectrum. As of 1Q-2013, only a handful of mobile operators have fully engaged on a small cell strategy that incorporates Wi-Fi hotspots and small cell 4G LTE base stations.
Operators that have adopted a comprehensive small cell strategy include Softbank NTT DoCoMo, SK Telecom, KT, Uplus and in the last week, Verizon Wireless.
Spectrum Options: After speaking with various spectrum stakeholders, ABI Research estimates that the available spectrum for the mobile cellular community will increase from around 300 MHz to 1,500 MHz over the next 5 to 10 years.
Incumbent mobile operators and equipment vendors would prefer this spectrum to be allocated on a dedicated basis but the FCC, the EC, Ofcom, and a number of additional governments are keen to evaluate cognitive radio technologies, such as white space TV, as they would boost spectrum capacity while allowing cohabiting users. At the next World Radio Congress there would be a stand-off between cellular and broadcast stakeholders.
Mobile internet usage will continue to skyrocket. By 2018 total mobile data traffic will likely eclipse 131,000 Peta Bytes, according to the latest market study by ABI Research.
"There has been much doom-mongering about this growth in mobile data traffic but mobile carriers should not panic just yet. There are indications that mobile carriers have a number of options to handle the traffic loads," said Jake Saunders, VP and practice director for core forecasting at ABI Research.
Based on extensive research for the resulting report on this topic, ABI has detailed the strategic options mobile service providers can place at their disposal to manage the expanding mobile data traffic outlook.
Radio Access Technology Options: Carriers are commercializing LTE but there are additional benefits to be gained from quickly adopting the LTE-Advanced roadmap. LTE-A’s release 10 introduces enhanced Multi-In Multi-Out antenna technology as well as interference mitigation technologies such as CoMP and eICIC.
A crucial technology is Carrier Aggregation that will allow mobile operators to chain spectrum blocks for substantial capacity and speed gains.
Network Architecture Options: Mobile operators can optimize their network base station assets to make the best possible (re)use of their allocated spectrum. As of 1Q-2013, only a handful of mobile operators have fully engaged on a small cell strategy that incorporates Wi-Fi hotspots and small cell 4G LTE base stations.
Operators that have adopted a comprehensive small cell strategy include Softbank NTT DoCoMo, SK Telecom, KT, Uplus and in the last week, Verizon Wireless.
Spectrum Options: After speaking with various spectrum stakeholders, ABI Research estimates that the available spectrum for the mobile cellular community will increase from around 300 MHz to 1,500 MHz over the next 5 to 10 years.
Incumbent mobile operators and equipment vendors would prefer this spectrum to be allocated on a dedicated basis but the FCC, the EC, Ofcom, and a number of additional governments are keen to evaluate cognitive radio technologies, such as white space TV, as they would boost spectrum capacity while allowing cohabiting users. At the next World Radio Congress there would be a stand-off between cellular and broadcast stakeholders.
Monday, June 10, 2013
How Demand for Low-Cost Tablets will Drive Growth
There once was a time when Apple had been able to maintain its media tablet lead by delivering a quality experience at a premium price. But as a growing number of analyst opinions raise new doubts about ongoing leadership -- the consumer electronics (CE) brand may have lost some of its caché in the marketplace.
Even though the iPad maker exited the first quarter of 2013 with a 50 percent share of all tablet shipments, the Google Android ecosystem is poised to overtake iOS -- according to the latest market study by ABI Research.
The big variable for Android leadership success is progress in China. The Chinese consumer elite still seem to be upbeat about the Apple brand -- and there's a growing ability for more consumers to afford technology devices.
However, the selection of smaller 7 inch Android tablets has become very popular, even though most currently lack the Google suite of apps and Android Play marketplace.
Moreover, a push for sub-$200 tablets is keeping Android relevant in both developed and emerging markets. In particular, the increased demand for these devices seems to be fueled by novice internet users.
Combined with the free Wi-Fi hotspot access phenomenon, low-cost tablet ownership will likely help remove the final barrier of entry to the Global Networked Economy for many people.
"It’s inevitable that Google Android tablets will overtake Apple iOS-powered slates, though we see no single vendor challenging Apple’s dominance anytime soon," says Jeff Orr, senior practice director at ABI Research.
With media tablets commercially available for more than four years, momentum is shifting toward value and affordability -- putting these devices within reach for more of the mainstream population.
Average selling price (ASP) and size have been moving down-market since Android tablets started honing in on the opportunity in 2012.
Rather than try to unseat Apple in the 10 inch class space, tablet vendors sought a defensible area they could own -- the result is the 7 inch class devices.
Facing manufacturing limits in its first quarter of offer, the 7.9 inch iPad Mini put a dent in the larger iPad sales and Apple profits. The first quarter of 2013 saw Apple cover its backlog and approach the typical 4-6 weeks of sales channel inventory.
ABI Research estimates that iPad mini represented 49 percent of units and 39 percent of total iPad revenues. ABI says that they expect iPad minis to become the predominant iPad model after the second quarter of 2013.
Even though the iPad maker exited the first quarter of 2013 with a 50 percent share of all tablet shipments, the Google Android ecosystem is poised to overtake iOS -- according to the latest market study by ABI Research.
The big variable for Android leadership success is progress in China. The Chinese consumer elite still seem to be upbeat about the Apple brand -- and there's a growing ability for more consumers to afford technology devices.
However, the selection of smaller 7 inch Android tablets has become very popular, even though most currently lack the Google suite of apps and Android Play marketplace.
Moreover, a push for sub-$200 tablets is keeping Android relevant in both developed and emerging markets. In particular, the increased demand for these devices seems to be fueled by novice internet users.
Combined with the free Wi-Fi hotspot access phenomenon, low-cost tablet ownership will likely help remove the final barrier of entry to the Global Networked Economy for many people.
"It’s inevitable that Google Android tablets will overtake Apple iOS-powered slates, though we see no single vendor challenging Apple’s dominance anytime soon," says Jeff Orr, senior practice director at ABI Research.
With media tablets commercially available for more than four years, momentum is shifting toward value and affordability -- putting these devices within reach for more of the mainstream population.
Average selling price (ASP) and size have been moving down-market since Android tablets started honing in on the opportunity in 2012.
Rather than try to unseat Apple in the 10 inch class space, tablet vendors sought a defensible area they could own -- the result is the 7 inch class devices.
Facing manufacturing limits in its first quarter of offer, the 7.9 inch iPad Mini put a dent in the larger iPad sales and Apple profits. The first quarter of 2013 saw Apple cover its backlog and approach the typical 4-6 weeks of sales channel inventory.
ABI Research estimates that iPad mini represented 49 percent of units and 39 percent of total iPad revenues. ABI says that they expect iPad minis to become the predominant iPad model after the second quarter of 2013.
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