Digital Lifescapes

A new IDC market study confirms that "homeshoring" (the antonym to offshoring) will remain an attractive option for U.S. service providers and their employees, particularly as the global economy slips into what could be a deep and protracted recession. "Current economic ripples are buffeting American wage earners, including customer care agents, at a time when workers already face significant challenges to both their productivity and their wallets," said Stephen Loynd, program manager, Contact Center Services research. "I am convinced that when it comes to outsourced customer care, by the time we emerge from a possibly severe global recession, homeshoring will have developed into a more formidable sibling to offshoring than many would have expected just a few years ago." Despite current economic indicators, IDC's new market forecast for U.S. broadband enabled home-based agents shows that the projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) remains robust a...

Strong anticipated growth may result in 57 million IPTV homes by 2013 -- or triple the end-2008 figure, according to a new market study by Informa Telecoms & Media. Despite this acceleration, only 4 percent of the world's remaining pay-TV households are forecast to subscribe to IPTV platforms by 2013. In fact, Informa's assessment states that only 14 countries will have more than 1 million IPTV subscribers. Report author Simon Murray said "This fairly limited penetration comes from having to migrate subscribers away from long-established cable and DTH services, as well as the impact of broadcast DTT to a lesser extent. However, there are examples of IPTV gaining a foothold even in the most competitive markets." In the short term, Informa forecasts 18.6 million IPTV households by the end of 2008, up 8 million in the year. Asia Pacific and Western Europe are each responsible for nearly 3 million of the additions, with North America adding only 1.7 million subscriber...

Market study findings from research consultancy TDG predicts that console-affiliated media portals such as Microsoft's Xbox LIVE and Sony's PlayStation Network will soon become formidable competitors to incumbent Pay-TV services. Leveraging broadband-enabled game consoles as Over-the-Top (OTT) video platforms -- thus bypassing cable, satellite and telco TV operators -- these companies will offer a compelling alternative to traditional TV programming by providing a more immersive, interactive video entertainment experience. "The launch of Microsoft's 'Experience' and the Xbox LIVE Netflix streaming video service is a perfect example of how potent these services will soon become," notes Michael Greeson, president of TDG. "There is little doubt these services are finally ready for prime-time." TDG points to several related findings: - Even before the launch of "Experience," Microsoft's Xbox LIVE had amassed some 15,000 movies (1,000 of...

WiMAX may be a tale of two markets -- one being WiMAX as an emerging technology gaining momentum, and the other being the larger converging broadband market, where rival mobile broadband system HSDPA and the acceleration of LTE threatens the opportunity for WiMAX in some markets. "It's the best and worst of times for WiMAX," says Mike Roberts, principal analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media. It's the best of times because the WiMAX industry has undoubtedly gained significant momentum in the last year, passing a string of key milestones including product certification, the launch of services by major operators such as Sprint Nextel, commitments to WiMAX by key Internet players such as Google, and the long-awaited arrival of WiMAX notebooks and other devices. WiMAX is also starting to take off in key emerging markets. For example, Informa's forecasts show that WiMAX will account for 24 percent of India's total broadband subscribers by 2013, up from 7 percent ...

The global market for set-top boxes will grow gradually over the next few years, then will peak at around 110 million shipments in 2012, according to the latest market study by ABI Research. Thereafter STB unit volumes for all platforms -- Digital Terrestrial Television (DTT), Internet Protocol Television (IPTV), Direct Broadcast Satellite (DBS), and CATV (cable television) -- will begin a gradual decline. STB revenues show a different pattern. According to ABI Research principal analyst Robert Clark, "STB revenues for all platforms have declined significantly between 2007 and 2009, but will recover by 2010 and remain relatively stable through at least 2013." Sales of basic STBs have already been falling for some time; now HD-only and PVR-only STBs are also showing the first signs of downturn. From 2009 on, Clark expects to see a greater share of combined HD/PVR sales, especially in the DBS segment. Apparently, the decline in shipments after 2012 is due in part to the expecte...

Revenues from mobile TV services will generate $1.5 billion in 2008, rising to over $10 billion in 2013. At present the revenues are predominantly from subscription fees, but this is expected to change over time as the advertising business model starts to gain prominence. Informa Telecoms & Media believes that by 2013 nearly half of the revenues will come from advertising. In the next two years, growth is anticipated to be strongest in the pioneering markets of South Korea and Japan before the rest of the world starts to catch up around 2010 to 2011. Despite isolated success stories in places like Italy and Austria, Europe is not expected to see rapid growth in mobile TV until 2009. The USA is expected to take even longer as confusion over standards prevents growth. Eventually, Informa believes that concerted momentum behind ATSC-MH is expected to boost the market for mobile TV in North America. Frankly, I'm less optimistic about the U.S. market adoption potential, but only tim...

Where is the text messaging capital of the U.S. mobile market? El Paso, Texas is the top U.S. city for mobile phone text messaging, according to the latest market study by Scarborough Research. Fifty-seven percent of cell phone subscribers age 18+ in El Paso text message, versus 48 percent of adult cellular subscribers nationally. Other leading markets for text messaging include Salt Lake City, Dallas and Memphis. Fifty-five percent of cell subscribers in these cities utilize the text messaging feature on their phone. Scarborough finds that Fort Myers, FL, Charleston, WV, and Grand Rapids, MI are the local markets least likely to text message. Thirty-six percent of Fort Meyers and Charleston cellular subscribers utilize the text messaging feature on their phones, as do 35 percent of those in Grand Rapids, MI. Youth and cultural diversity are two demographic commonalities among these so-called texters, according to Scarborough Research. These consumers are 49 percent more likely than al...

Worldwide spending on information technology (IT) products and services will slow significantly in 2009 as a direct result of the global financial crisis that began in September 2008. According to a revised forecast from IDC, worldwide IT spending will grow 2.6 percent year over year in 2009 -- down from IDC's last forecast of 5.9 percent growth. In the United States, IT spending growth is expected to be 0.9 percent in 2009, much lower than the 4.2 percent growth forecast in August. "Although all the economic forecasts went from up slightly to down drastically in a matter of days, the good news is that IT is in a better position than ever to resist the downward pull of a slowing economy," said John Gantz, chief research officer at IDC. Technology is already deeply embedded in many mission-critical operations and remains critical to achieving further efficiency and productivity gains. As a result, IDC expects worldwide IT spending will continue to grow in 2009, albeit at a...

The telco television headend equipment market is expected to grow substantially over the next five years, according to the latest study by In-Stat. This growth, driven by the expansion of video channels, the introduction of high-definition (HD) content, and the continued adoption of on-demand services will position telco operators to pursue highly-profitable personalized advertising and converged services business models, the high-tech market research firm says. "For operators to generate significant profitability from telco TV and related video services, they must find ways for the network to add value," says Keith Nissen, In-Stat analyst. This will dictate finding solutions to the challenges faced with personalized advertising, converged video services, and ultimately the integration of network and Web-based applications. The In-Stat research covers the worldwide market for Telco TV and headend equipment. It tracks the development of the worldwide telco TV market, and exami...

Has the gloomy economic outlook got you down? One of the undisputed bright spots in 2008 has been the continued rapid growth of web usage on mobile phones. While growth of web usage is up across all mobile device classes, one of the biggest areas of growth has been smartphones. ABI Research sees this growth continuing over the next five years, with highly capable Internet browsers on smartphones expanding from 130 million in 2008 to 530 million by 2013. "From the strong growth in ad-calls for ad networks such as Admob to the astounding increases in page views for Opera Mini, it's very clear that consumers have embraced the use of the web on mobile devices," says research director Michael Wolf. The increase in awareness of the web on mobile devices -- due to the iPhone and new RIM models -- has helped contribute to this growth, as has the continued move towards flat-rate data plans by many mobile operators." In addition to more capable devices, consumer's desire t...

Nielsen Online announced that 78 percent of adult U.S. online consumers made a purchase over the Web within the previous six months. The number one online transaction category was travel, with 38 percent of adult online consumers making at least one travel purchase on the Web in the previous six months. Credit card account management and home banking took the number two and three spots, with 36 percent and 35 percent of consumers conducting transactions, respectively. This market study is based on a quarterly survey of approximately 36,000 U.S. Internet users age 18 and older. "Most consumers see online retail as a primary benefit of the Internet," said Nachi Lolla, research director, commerce, Nielsen Online. The sheer convenience of being able to comparison shop from your home or office has become all but irresistible. Possible early concerns about online security have been sufficiently addressed, and consistent on-time delivery and reasonable shipping costs have bolstered...

Are you confused by your digital home management interface? Help is on the way. The rise of IP-enabled consumer electronics (CE) products is fueling increasing demand for browsers and web-based user interfaces in these complex devices. ABI Research expects the number of web browsers embedded in CE devices such as digital TVs, game consoles, and set-top boxes to grow from 60 million shipped in 2008 to 214 million by 2013. "Most forward-thinking consumer electronics vendors today are integrating IP ports in their mainline consumer electronics devices," says research director Michael Wolf. The push to bring web surfing, over-the-top video content, social networking and other web 2.0 applications to consumer electronics is creating a need to integrate browsing engines and dynamic user interfaces as well as other platforms for content rendering. The integration of web browsers into digital TVs is already common in Japan and is becoming increasingly more common in North America -- ...

Continued strong growth in machine-to-machine (M2M) communications markets will see about 95 million cellular M2M modules shipping in 2013, according to the latest ABI Research market study. Regarding shipments to the three main market segments -- telematics, telemetry, and wireless local loop -- about 34 million devices are expected to be for telematics and 39 million for telemetry. According to senior analyst Sam Lucero, "Until about 2011, the major market growth will be found in the telemetry segment, since it encompasses a broad range of applications including smart metering, POS terminals, and remote monitoring and control applications." After 2011, we expect to see a spike in telematics applications. These exist now, but from 2011 will be driven more quickly by mandates such as Europe's eCall initiative, which will see cellular connections in every vehicle, and in North America by a much stronger competitive reaction to OnStar -- virtually of the major automakers wi...

While the cellphone industry has generally been unaffected by economic ups and downs, this recession (depression, etc.) may well be very different, according to the latest market assessment by In-Stat. The current economic slowdown is more widespread and deeper than ever experienced during the history of the cellphone era, and has spread through Europe, Asia, and North America, the high-tech market research firm says. The industry is currently strong, and this year is turning out to be a relatively good one, but the mobile phone sector will likely have some bumps and turbulence over the next couple of years. "The economic crisis is still playing out, but all indications are that it will have an effect on the cellphone business worldwide, but mostly on North America and Europe," says Allen Nogee, In-Stat analyst. In-Stat believes that it will take until 2010 before cellphone sales return to their normal growth levels. Frankly, the current economic repercussions are truly daunt...

Multimedia Research Group's (MRG) latest IPTV Global Forecast shows that global IPTV subscribers will grow from 20.4 million IPTV subscribers in 2008 to 89.6 million in 2012. To drive this growth, IPTV Operators worldwide are expected to continue investing in improved Quality-of-Service, ease-of-operation, high-definition (HD) content, exclusive programming and time-shifting as differentiating features. The MRG market study provides new insight into strategies and services added by IPTV Operators to accelerate growth, and the differences in key markets. In Europe, for example, steady IPTV subscriber growth continues while more HD channels are being offered to Western and Eastern European subscribers. By 2012, European subscribers will still be slightly ahead of Asia, with Europe maintaining 41.5 percent of the worldwide subscriber market and Asia, 35.8 percent. Despite economic contraction, consistent growth continues at the three major French IPTV Operators as they compete to brin...

With the global economy showing signs of a deep recession, mobile phone usage will continue to escalate, regardless. In a recent market study by ABI Research, mobile messaging services revenues are forecast to grow from $151 billion in 2008 to greater than $212 billion globally by 2013. Supply side drivers will be of primary importance for maintaining this level of growth. ABI's principal analyst Dan Shey said "Mobile messaging ARPUs are 85+ percent of all handset data services revenues regardless of region and will remain so for many years." As messaging involves all the biggest players in the mobile industry there will be incentives for all mobile messaging suppliers to work cooperatively to serve customers well and propel all parties through these rough economic waters. The important messaging suppliers include operators, device OEMs, content providers and middleware vendors. But although these suppliers can make the mobile messaging experience as pleasurable as possib...

Worldwide PC microprocessor shipments in the third calendar quarter of 2008 (3Q08) reached record levels again, according to the latest market study by IDC. However, the outlook for the processor market in 4Q08 and 2009 is unsure. Worldwide PC processor unit shipments grew 14.0 percent quarter over quarter (QoQ) and 15.8 percent year over year (YoY); market revenue grew 7.6 percent QoQ and 4.1 percent YoY to $8.3 billion. Intel's new Atom processor for ultra low-cost mobile PCs made a notable difference in the overall market performance; without Atom, unit shipments grew 8.3 percent QoQ and 8.7 percent YoY. "Not considering the effects of Atom, the overall market still grew at a decent pace in the third quarter," said Shane Rau, director of research at IDC. "Intel's and AMD's shipments grew at a rate only slightly slower than typical for a third quarter, and seasonal demand appeared reasonable up until September. By segment, while the mobile processor segment...

Revenues from mobile phone sales are expected to grow at 6.8 percent CAGR between 2007 and 2013, and should exceed $200 billion by the end of 2013, according to the latest study by Informa Telecoms & Media. Emerging markets, including Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) and Africa, will make up the majority global handset market value, with 60 percent share in 2013. Growth disparities between developed and emerging markets will become apparent within the next five years. Growth will not exceed 2 percent CAGR in developed markets according to the report, handset market value growth rates are slowing significantly in developed markets and, if the current economic slowdown persists, could even turn negative after 2009. Informa does not expect revenue growth from mobile phone sales to exceed 2 percent CAGR in Western Europe, 1 percent in North America, and less than 0.5 percent in Japan between 2010 and 2013. In these regions, the smartphone market will represent the major growth a...

The tremendous growth of mobile broadband usage, with annual growth rates of 200 percent in some parts of North America and upwards of 800 percent in parts of Europe, could create future challenges for mobile service providers. However, a new market study from Parks Associates found that many carriers rely on outdated business models, excessive pricing or flat-rate billing strategies, to manage traffic or otherwise attempt to reduce user demand. Excessive pricing slows growth and invites cutthroat competition. Flat-rate carriers charge a single rate for unlimited service, which does not effectively monetize traffic. Both models are unsustainable, given current growth trends. "Carriers need to create business models with more refined network controls in order to facilitate market growth while maintaining profitability," said Anton Denissov, research analyst, Parks Associates. These models must be easy for consumers to understand and also address specific needs, so subscribers ...

According to ABI Research, mobile location-based social networking is expected to become a driver for the adoption of location-based services -- as it provides a unifying framework for a large set of applications such as friend finders, local search and geo-tagging. While many LBS applications will include features allowing the sharing of real-time experiences via fixed social networking sites such as Facebook and MySpace, fully-fledged mobile location-based social networking sites will also gain momentum with more than 82 million subscriptions expected by 2013. "While growth will be mainly driven by the availability of multimedia-centric GPS handsets, other mobile form factors will also become important," says ABI Research director Dominique Bonte. Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs) with built-in GPS receivers have been announced, with location-based social networking site GyPSii supporting Moblin-based Intel Atom processor-powered MIDs. Connected PNDs and outdoor GPS solutions ...