Every product roadmap conversation with a technology vendor now runs through one filter that has nothing to do with the roadmap itself: does the company have an AI story that a buyer's finance team would actually underwrite. Forrester Research just gave that gut check a formal structure. Its newly introduced AI Disruption Model evaluates 17 technology and service categories, spanning more than 200 individual markets, against nine factors including AI substitutability, labor intensity, and switching costs. The finding that should reorder tech vendor strategy conversations this quarter is not which markets grow. It is how few of them do, and what that scarcity means for everyone else. Only Three Categories Get an Unambiguous Green Light According to the research, infrastructure providers such as cloud platforms, data centers, and storage; data and AI providers spanning models, platforms, and governance tooling; and cybersecurity and identity providers covering zero trust and AI agent...
The trillion-dollar cloud hyperscaler build-out was underwritten by a simple bet: that enterprises would keep paying a premium for Frontier AI compute indefinitely. The latest market data suggests that AI infrastructure investment is being tested faster than anyone budgeted for, and the shift is not a forecast. It already happened. The Market Flipped in a Year Juniper Research reports that American frontier labs -- Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic among them -- previously accounted for roughly 70 percent of the work run through OpenRouter; the open marketplace where developers choose between competing models. Today that share has fallen to around 30 percent. Why? Chinese models are now running for up to 90 percent less than their U.S. counterparts on the OpenRouter platform. It's not a gradual erosion. It is a market share collapse, and it happened inside a single budget cycle. Cheap Wins Volume, Quality Still Commands a Premium The economic picture is not uniformly bearish for Wester...