The global Non-Terrestrial Network (NTN) and Direct-to-Cell (D2C) markets are poised for growth, driven by unprecedented collaboration between technology giants, satellite operators, and mobile network operators (MNOs).
According to the latest worldwide market study, these sectors will collectively generate over $25 billion in revenue by 2035, reshaping connectivity paradigms.
This convergence represents a strategic response to the escalating demand for ubiquitous, low-latency wireless connectivity across industries and geographies.
Global Connectivity Market Development
The NTN market (encompassing satellite, airborne, and maritime connectivity) and D2C services are converging to create hybrid infrastructure models.
By 2035, NTN services alone will account for $15 billion of the total revenue, driven by applications in IoT, emergency communications, and rural broadband.
D2C apps enabling satellite-to-smartphone connectivity will grow at 32 percent CAGR to $10 billion by 2035 as the 3GPP Release 17/18 standard matures.
"The D2C market is experiencing a seismic transformation, with industry leaders such as Apple, SpaceX, and AST SpaceMobile driving satellite-enabled connectivity into the consumer mainstream," said Victor Xu, industry analyst at ABI Research.
Key Market Drivers and Investment Trends
- Companies like SpaceX (Starlink), Amazon (Project Kuiper), and Apple (Emergency SOS via Satellite) have injected $120 billion+ into NTN infrastructure since 2020, accelerating LEO satellite deployments.
- Over 45 percent of MNOs partner with satellite providers to extend coverage, with initiatives like AST SpaceMobile’s smartphone-compatible satellites and T-Mobile’s Coverage Above and Beyond program.
- Advances in phased-array antennas and software-defined payloads have reduced satellite production costs by 40 percent since 2022 while improving throughput.
Vertical Market Growth Opportunities
- Precision farming applications will drive 28 percent of NTN IoT revenue by 2030, leveraging satellite connectivity for real-time soil or weather monitoring.
- Offshore wind farms and remote oil or gas operations will account for $3.2 billion in NTN spending by 2035 for asset tracking and environmental compliance.
- Maritime and aviation connectivity services will grow at 19 percent CAGR, enabled by hybrid LEO-GEO satellite constellations.
Strategic Challenges and Differentiation
While the market potential is substantial, operators face complex hurdles:
- Regulatory Fragmentation: 78 countries lack clear NTN spectrum policies, creating service deployment bottlenecks.
- Ecosystem Gaps: Only 12 percent of smartphones support D2C protocols, though Apple, Huawei, and Qualcomm plan full integration by 2026.
- Economic Viability: Urban NTN services require $0.35/GB to compete with terrestrial 5G, demanding cost reductions in ground infrastructure.
Outlook for Wireless Connectivity Growth
- AI machine learning will dynamically allocate traffic between terrestrial and NTN networks, improving spectral efficiency by 50+ percent.
- 3GPP Release 20 will formalize NTN as a 6G component, enabling sub-20ms latency for LEO-based satellite services.
- NTN networks will be critical infrastructure, with governments allocating $4.7 billion for disaster-resistant connectivity by 2028.
- Africa and Southeast Asia will represent 60 percent of new NTN subscriptions post-2030, bypassing traditional fiber deployments.
According to the ABI analysis, for enterprise leaders and technology sector investors, the NTN/D2C sector offers asymmetric opportunities.
That said, I believe the early movers in standardized module production, wireless spectrum-sharing platforms, and hybrid network management systems are likely to capture disproportionate value as global connectivity demand enters its most transformative phase since the mobile smartphone revolution.