Prediction markets have stopped behaving like a betting curiosity and started behaving like market infrastructure.
Executives who still file them under gambling are working from a stale map, and so are many of the regulators trying to govern them.
A new Juniper Research market study gives prediction markets substantial attention, and its core message for decision-makers is that legitimacy, not demand, is now the binding constraint.
Volume Has Outrun the Rulebook
Juniper Research reports that combined monthly volume across Kalshi and Polymarket stood below $5 billion in September 2025 and reached roughly $24 billion by April 2026.
Around the FIFA World Cup, a single month surpassed $50 billion, roughly matching the entire regulated U.S. sports betting handle for 2025.
That is close to a tenfold climb in under a year, and it happened in full public view.
Institutional Capital Has Taken a Position
Intercontinental Exchange, parent of the New York Stock Exchange, committed $1 billion to Polymarket in October 2025 and added $600 million in March 2026.
Kalshi closed a $1 billion raise in May 2026 at a $22 billion valuation. Investors of this caliber are underwriting a thesis that event contracts become a regulated asset class rather than a legal footnote.
The economics support that view, since these venues earn per-contract fees instead of a house edge, which looks more like an exchange than a casino.
The most strategically interesting finding is functional.
Financial news channels now quote live market odds the way they quote an economist’s forecast, and central bankers see the pricing as a high-frequency complement to slower official data.
Some companies have begun buying event contracts to hedge tariff decisions and weather events, much as they hedge currency moves.
For a CFO or chief risk officer, that is a new instrument class to evaluate; for a chief strategy officer, it is a continuous probability signal that most planning cycles ignore.
Federal Approval, State Resistance
The legal picture is far less settled.
As of September 2026, roughly 17 US states have taken legal or enforcement action against Kalshi, Polymarket, or both.
Nevada has an operational ban, Massachusetts holds an injunction against Kalshi’s sports contracts, and Michigan saw a temporary court-ordered shutdown.
CFTC registration shields these platforms from federal enforcement but not from state gambling law, and most cases remain live while the contracts keep trading.
A Global Map That Keeps Fragmenting
Europe is closing in from a different angle.
On June 17, 2026, nine European gambling regulators pledged joint action against unlicensed prediction platforms, and in July the European Securities and Markets Authority signaled that some event contracts may qualify as financial instruments subject to binary options rules.
Elsewhere, India now classifies these platforms as prohibited online money gaming, Indonesia blocked Polymarket in May 2026, and Brazil announced a block of 27 platforms in April.
Juniper Research sees no sign of convergence toward a common international standard.
Outlook for Prediction Markets and Crypto-Gaming
Juniper Research projects that total wagering on crypto-gaming platforms, prediction markets included, will grow from $571 billion in 2026 to $1.3 trillion in 2035, a 9.6 percent compound annual growth rate.
Convergence is already visible, as crypto casinos launch prediction products on the same wallets and rails they use for casino play.
Any organization touching these markets, as a hedger, data consumer, or partner, should treat jurisdiction tracking as an operating capability and assume that federal and state exposure are separate problems.
Licensing posture belongs on the due diligence checklist alongside security and financial stability.
Is your organization treating prediction markets as a signal to read, an instrument to use, or a risk to monitor? Each answer implies a different owner in the C-suite, and most companies have not yet chosen one. It's an emerging market worthy of watching.