Digital Lifescapes

Worldwide subscribers to the 4G wireless standard known as Long Term Evolution (LTE) are projected to surpass the 100-million mark this year, according to the latest market study by IHS iSuppli. LTE subscribers worldwide will reach 198.1 million in 2013 -- that's up by 115 percent from 92.3 million last year. Since being adopted in 2010 with just 612,000 users, the 4G next-generation wireless technology has grown by leaps and bounds, surging by an astounding factor of 22 to 13.2 million subscribers in 2011, and then jumping another 599 percent in 2012 to nearly 100 million subscribers. By 2016, LTE will claim more than 1.0 billion users, as shown in the figure below, equivalent to a five-year compound annual growth rate of 139 percent. "With LTE emerging as a true global technology standard, its ecosystem now faces both challenges and opportunities," said Wayne Lam, senior analyst for wireless communications at IHS iSuppli . Rapid adoption will drive design innova...

Wireless fourth-generation (4G) mobile network subscriber adoption will escalate in 2012 -- as a variety of 4G-enabled mobile devices, such as USB dongles, smartphones, media tablets, 4G portable hotspots, and wireless broadband CPE modems, are shipping this year. "4G devices are expected to generate 87 million in unit sales in 2012, that's up 294 percent year-on-year,” states Jake Saunders, vice president of forecasting at ABI Research . According to their latest market assessment, the lion’s share of the global market is now backing LTE as service provider and vendor support has fallen away from the WiMAX fourth generation wireless network standard. Observing the success of 3G cellular services, ABI analysts believes that it is clear there is a natural evolutionary demand from end-users, both business and consumer, to jump onto the 4G data bandwagon. However, there are still some teething issues that will need to be resolved. Some operators in Western Europe have st...

Back in 2002, mobile network operators in the Asia-Pacific region trailed behind their North American and European counterparts -- in terms of planned fourth-generation service development. Fast forward to the present day and the situation is very different. According to the latest market study by ABI Research, Out of 110 mobile networks, 10 operators (9 percent) have commercial 4G LTE networks up and running. Another 58 (53 percent) either have specific plans to roll out LTE or are conducting trials. "We estimate total Asia-Pacific mobile capital expenditure to reach $53.3 billion by the end of 2012," says Jake Saunders, vice president of forecasting at ABI Research . About 62 percent of the capital expense is still earmarked for radio access network deployment. Other key investment areas include EPC and gateway upgrades to the core network at 9 percent -- as well as improving in-building wireless coverage into dense urban centers at 5.7 percent. Evidence for the inv...

The developed Asian markets -- such as Japan and South Korea -- have always led the way forward in mobile network technology deployments and advanced applications. Now other markets in the region are actively investing in new infrastructure -- as the developing markets in the region catch up. ​"A number of Asian operators are bracing themselves for a quickening in 3G and 4G subscriber adoption in 2012," says Jake Saunders, vice president of forecasting at ABI Research. According to the latest market study by ABI Research, Asian capital expenditure in 2012 is forecast to increase 5.7 percent year-on-year to $58.8 billion. Across the region, over 63 percent of the CAPEX budget for 2012 will focus on the construction of radio access network infrastructure, 8 percent on upgrades and capacity expansions to the core network, and 29 percent on development of new technologies and new businesses, construction of backhaul transmission facilities, etc. Several Japanese operators...

The market for fourth-generation (4G) wireless devices continues to shift and evolve, as expectations are being reset and planned network upgrade deployments proceed slowly. Shipments of 4G smartphones are now expected to grow from 4.6 million in 2010 to 245 million in 2016. LTE smartphone shipments will surpass WiMAX smartphones in 2011 -- growing at a 72 percent CAGR over the forecast period. Michael Morgan, senior mobile devices analyst at ABI Research , says, “Nearly all of the world’s mobile operators, including the largest, are supporting LTE. It is an important driver for the LTE ecosystem that dwarfs any other drivers of 4G in general or of WiMAX and LTE, specifically.” 4G smartphones are emerging as the next major platform opportunity for mobile operators, device OEMs, IC vendors, network equipment vendors, and content companies. Despite the growing number of 4G-capable device segments, smartphones will remain the largest and most important device segment for in...

Mobile phone usage is changing and becoming richer with applications. The movement from 2G to 3G is helping to facilitate instant messaging and web-browsing. Given the high cost of wireline broadband Internet access in some parts of the world, a mobile phone will be the way many experience the Web for the first time. Now, video-intensive applications are being accessed by mobile phones, which is adding to the traffic growth on mobile networks globally. As a result, the number of macro base stations deployed will increase to over 6 million by 2014, according to the latest market study by In-Stat . "The amount of infrastructure spending in China, India, and the U.S. is mind boggling," says Chris Kissel, Industry Analyst at In-Stat. "Over one third of new base stations deployed from 2011 to 2014 will be in China, India, or the U.S., resulting in a substantial shift in the structure of the industry." Clearly, CAPEX spending will move industry leadership from Weste...

LTE will still become the mainstay 4G mobile network technology, although its universal use is still in the future. According to the latest market assessment by ABI Research , some service providers will benefit from a dual-platform or multi-platform strategy that's initially based on both LTE and WiMAX. According to ABI research director Philip Solis, "Intel and others are pushing the idea of heterogeneous networks. This is not to deny LTE's long-term position as the leading 4G platform, but to recognize that a small part of the ecosystem will still be characterized by diversity for some time." Who stands to benefit from that multi-platform scenario? Some operators, such as Sprint and Clearwire, KDDI and UQ Communications, and KT, will use both technologies for some time. When asked why network operators would prefer to support multiple technologies, Solis said, "By using both standards, they'll have access to more spectrum, which helps with capacity...

A mobile Internet access hotspot, a device that connects to a wireless broadband service and provides a shared Wi-Fi LAN capability, is a relatively new concept -- with the first devices appearing during the last two years. Yet, the number and types of mobile hotspots is growing almost daily and In-Stat now forecasts that revenue from standalone mobile hotspot devices will approach $500 million by the end of 2010. Mobile hotspot service revenue is projected to reach into the tens of billions of dollars annually. "Mobile hotspot device shipments are expected to grow for several years, but we expect some jockeying for the top position occurring between device categories," says Allen Nogee, Principal Analyst at In-Stat. Smartphones with embedded mobile hotspots have already cut into shipments for battery-powered mobile hotspot devices. Automotive hotspot devices might do the same. Standalone mobile hotspot adoption will increase as they're positioned as home gateway...

At the end of the second quarter of 2010, more than five billion mobile subscriptions were active worldwide, according to the latest market study by ABI Research . Emerging markets such as India, Indonesia and China have continued to add mobile connections at a rapid clip, and show no signs of slowing down. Africa led the growth cycle, registering 4 percent in new subscribers between 1Q and 2Q 2010. "Africa's low mobile penetration and usage are now attracting multinational mobile operators such as Bharti and Vodafone to the world's last remaining growth market," says ABI Research vice president, Jake Saunders. This new competition will lead to lower monthly tariffs and will allow more people on the continent to access a mobile phone. In developed markets, subscriptions continue to grow despite penetration levels greater than 100 percent. The introduction of high-speed 4G data technologies such as WiMAX and LTE will ensure that subscription growth remains robu...

Wireless network modem shipments in 2009 topped 72 million units, a significant growth over the 46.4 million units shipped during 2008. According to the latest market study by ABI Research , both volumes pale in comparison with the expected 93 million units expected to ship in 2010. The overwhelming majority of these modems are found in the USB dongle form factor rather than embedded in their host devices. "Many new mobile broadband networks are being deployed right now," says ABI Research principal analyst Jeff Orr. The HSPA and HSPA+ protocols, as well as 4G WiMAX and LTE, are luring new broadband service subscribers who want their existing computing and communications devices to be enabled for those networks. Orr adds, "We find that new computer sales with embedded modem modules are being adopted between 9 and 12 months after the new network services launch, while USB modems are an immediate upgrade opportunity." ABI practice director Kevin Burden says, ...

According to the latest market projections from ABI Research , the number of subscribers to mobile WiMAX services will approach 59 million in 2015. That represents a positive forecast, given recent economic conditions. Although, ABI analyst Xavier Ortiz says "WiMAX growth has not been as early or as strong as many would have hoped several years ago." The factors impeding WiMAX's upside opportunities haven't been technological, he says, but economic and psychological. "The recession certainly played a role, making investors wary and delaying some deployments. On top of that, delays in the formation of the new Clearwire have constrained the rest of the ecosystem to some degree, from subscribers to devices and chipsets." Subscriber growth and base station shipments go hand in hand, and despite uncertainty among many operators as to which mobile 4G platform -- WiMAX or TD-LTE -- to choose, ABI's forecasts see WiMAX base station shipments continuing t...

According to the latest market study by ABI Research , the global total of mobile broadband subscribers is projected to surpass 1.5 billion by 2015. "While the majority of subscribers connect to the mobile Internet via their smartphones, a number do so via their modem-enabled iPads, netbooks and laptops," says ABI Research principal analyst Jeff Orr. Mobile operators are starting to see burgeoning revenue growth in mobile broadband services. The cellular modems used to connect Internet services to mobile devices are, therefore, gaining in popularity. Cellular modems come in a variety of form-factors such as PC Cards, USB modems, internal Mini-Cards and mobile hotspot routers. USB modem dongles are the most common devices offered by the mobile network operators. Mobile broadband dongles provide several advantages. They are easy to carry and flexible to use, so it is very convenient for users to maintain Internet access when they are away from home or office. The late...

The market for mobile broadband connectivity for portable devices has previously been slow to gain momentum in North America. Only in the past 18 months has the U.S. market participants taken significant steps toward fostering broader adoption -- beyond the early-adopter mobile business user. According to a new International Data Corporation ( IDC ) forecast, the U.S. mobile broadband market will potentially grow from 6.5 million subscribers in 2009 to 30.2 million in 2014 -- which accounts for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.1 percent over the forecast period. The introduction of subsidized netbook and tablet PCs, changes to pricing structures, and the early availability of 4G with WiMAX will begin to spur interest among the consumer segment about the power of mobile broadband as a secondary access method beyond wired broadband. IDC believes that although the possibility of mobile broadband becoming a primary access technology remains somewhat a figment of our imagina...

Yet another market study has uncovered delays in the planned migration to forth-generation wireless networks. Infonetics Research recently published their 4G Strategies: Global Service Provider Survey. Senior Infonetics analysts asked operators about their 4G network build-out plans, deployment strategies, challenges, technical and commercial drivers -- plus, the 4G services, applications, and devices they plan to offer. "Better spectral efficiency tops the list of technical drivers for service providers upgrading to 4G," notes Richard Webb, directing analyst for WiMAX, microwave, and mobile devices at Infonetics. "We asked service providers around the world when they anticipate their 4G networks will be complete with commercial services running. Two-thirds said 2012 to 2014, which is a realistic timeframe when an equipment and device ecosystem based upon an IMT-Advanced definition of 4G seems likely," adds Stéphane Téral, Infonetics Research's principal ...

3G Americas announced that it has published its resource report on 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) standards and their evolution to IMT-Advanced, or 4G services. The white paper provides in-depth examination of 3GPP technology standards from a technical, business and applications standpoint. "The 3GPP technology standards deliver mobile connectivity to more than 4 billion users worldwide today and have been developed to continue evolving to higher levels of performance with mobile broadband innovation," said Chris Pearson, president of 3G Americas. GSM operators can choose to evolve their networks in ways that best suit their assets and business environments with benefits that offer flexibility, scalability and economic advantages, whether they choose HSPA+ or LTE. The global demand for wireless data services continues to drive the rapid growth of HSPA technology with 303 commercial HSPA networks and over 454 million UMTS-HSPA subscriptions reported at the end of 20...

Consumers now seem eager to adopt affordable Mobile Internet access services. Long Term Evolution (LTE), the next-generation 4G mobile broadband standard, is going to be the clear choice for the next leap in wireless technology, according to the latest market study by In-Stat . While WiMax appeared to be a competitor for 4G network deployments early on, that battle is now largely resolved. LTE's deployment will primarily be impeded by the success of 3G networks and HSPA and HSPA+ networks as mobile operators seek to leverage the existing investment in their installed infrastructure. "LTE still has several glaring issues," says Allen Nogee, In-Stat analyst. "These include lack of spectrum, signal-to-noise ratio, and non-established patent and royalty pool. It's clear that the shift toward 4G LTE will be gradual and protracted." No, that assessment doesn't sound like it's a foregone conclusion that LTE is on the path to 4G standard domination. In fact,...

The number of WiMAX network deployments -- currently more than 500 across 145 countries -- is greater than that of any conventional 3G network technology and more than 50 percent greater than the number of HSPA network commitments. However, most 4G WiMAX deployments to date have been small. According to the latest market study by Pyramid Research , we should anticipate that coverage will increase. Many of the larger WiMAX deployments are still underway, and large countries -- such as India, Indonesia and Vietnam -- are just beginning to issue WiMAX licenses. Highlights from the Pyramid market study include: - Markets with the lowest broadband penetration rates represent the most upside, and they estimate that roughly 70 percent of WiMAX deployments are in emerging markets, led by the Africa and Middle East region with more than a quarter of global deployments. - WiMAX volumes are dependent on the success of only a handful of large operators, while LTE has the backing of a substantial n...

Multi-Service Business Gateway (MSBG) equipment manufacturers have shifted their focus from the U.S. enterprise branch-office market to small businesses and selected vertical markets around the world, according to the latest market study by In-Stat . Here in Austin Texas, CLEAR recently launched its 4G WiMAX wireless service -- continuing their Cisco 4G WiMAX solutions deployment -- including service offerings specifically targeted at local small businesses. According to In-Stat, worldwide MSBG revenue is expected to grow slowly from $729 million in 2009 to $951 million in 2013. MSBGs are defined as products purposely designed for small business and branch office applications that integrate multiple communication voice, data, and video functions into a single device. Since 2007, the number of enterprise branch offices in the U.S. has declined by nearly 6 percent to 1.48 million establishments. Small business start-ups and the expansion of enterprise branch offices are expected to cli...

Demand for smartphones, regular mobile phones, and wireless broadband services continues to drive the carrier base station market, according to the latest market study by In-Stat . The number of newly deployed macro cellular base stations will grow over 10 percent in 2009. Of new macro cellular base station shipments, WCDMA base station shipments will make up the lion's share of all base station shipments worldwide, accounting for about 50 percent of the total base station revenue. By 2013, In-Stat forecasts that the percent that WCDMA contributes to total base station revenue will exceed 70 percent and LTE base stations will account for another 20 percent of the total. "WCDMA/HSPA base stations will be the work horses of wireless data networks," says Allen Nogee, In-Stat analyst. "Many operators, worldwide, are in the process of rolling out, or enhancing, their current CDMA networks, including a very large rollout of CDMA by China Unicom. China Unicom was awarded th...

More people in Europe are basing their broadband service subscriptions on price rather than on whether the service is delivered via fixed or mobile networks. This trend that will have a major impact on how telecom network operators position and promote their services, according to the latest market study by Pyramid Research . In Europe, the level of competition in each market -- and attractive competitive pricing -- have emerged as the determining factors affecting subscriber broadband purchase decisions. "The dynamics in the fixed broadband market are shaping those in the mobile broadband segment, and as mobile technologies improve and mature, they will have a stronger impact on the fixed segment," notes Jan ten Sythoff, Manager of mobile content at Pyramid Research. There is a stronger correlation between GDP per-capita and broadband adoption when cellular and fixed networks are measured together than if fixed and mobile broadband technologies are examined separately, which...