Digital Lifescapes

Across the globe, the demand for personal computers (PCs) has declined significantly over the last couple of years, as both consumers and businesses invest in other devices. According to one industry analyst, that historically bleak view may be coming to an end. The worldwide PC market will likely experience a slight recovery in 2019, with shipments of desktops, notebooks and two-in-ones set for 0.3 percent growth -- that's after seven years of ongoing declines. Personal Computer Market Development The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region will be a key driver as vendors turn to the market in the face of falling demand within Europe and China. PC shipments to APAC will overtake those to Western Europe by 2021. "Microsoft Windows 10 refresh will continue to be the main driver of commercial demand for PCs in 2019," said Alastair Edwards, chief analyst at Canalys . "This will be buoyed by strong economic performance and business spend in the United States, the largest PC m...

The outlook for personal computer (PC) shipments continues to improve slightly, as competition from other devices eases in some markets, upgrades to new models boost demand, and economic conditions around the world stabilize or improve somewhat. But many challenges still remain. The decline in PC volume since early 2012 is expected to linger throughout 2016, with later years offering few opportunities to boost volumes as economic issues and other consumer electronic products sap the growth potential, according to the latest market study by International Data Corporation (IDC). In the near-term, expectations for PC growth within the fourth quarter of 2015 and early 2016 were already fairly low, as notebook computers have struggled with competition from very capable media tablets and feature-rich smartphones or phablets. The impact of falling commodity prices and foreign currencies has further depressed demand, and the ability to upgrade older hardware to Windows 10 or Linux has pr...

The Personal Computer (PC) market has been very volatile for several years. Meanwhile, each new year an industry analyst predicts a small recovery, but the forecast results fail to materialize. We've seen this cycle of refutal over and over again. Case in point: worldwide PC shipments totaled 71.9 million units in the fourth quarter of 2015 (4Q15), reaching a year-on-year decline of -10.6 percent, according to the latest market study by International Data Corporation (IDC ). Although total shipments were similar to analyst expectations, 2015 still ended as the first year below 300 million units since 2008. The holiday quarter achieved a small boost compared to the prior quarter, but the year-on-year decline in 2015 shipments was the largest in history -- surpassing the decline of -9.8 percent in 2013. The PC market continued to face persistent challenges from longer-PC lifecycles and competition from mobile phones and media tablets, despite the slowing growth in those markets...

Looking back on 2015, the personal computer industry had yet another period of transition, as most vendors either missed the shifting market demand or they had products that were perceived as obsolete. That said, the low-cost high-value Chromebook category actually gained new momentum in the market. In its recent report on notebook PCs, ABI Research analyzed current market trends in Chromebooks, laptops and ultraportable PCs and offered a forward-looking, five-year forecast on industry trends. Chromebooks will continue to lead growth for the notebook PC category, with Google Chrome OS systems (based upon Linux) expected to ship more than 8 million units by the end of 2015, increasing with a 22 percent CAGR over the next five years. "Industry professionals can expect the notebook PC market, including Chromebooks, laptops and ultraportable PCs, to remain roughly flat year-on-year in 2015, with flat to slightly positive growth projected through 2020," says Jeff Orr, resear...

Worldwide personal computer (PC) shipments are expected to fall by -8.7 percent in 2015 and not stabilize until 2017 at the earliest, according to the the latest worldwide market study by International Data Corporation (IDC). According to the IDC assessment, the latest PC forecast has growth declining further through 2016 -- which will now amount to five continuous years of declining shipments. Growth should resume in 2017, led by the commercial market, while consumer volume continues a small decline through the end of the forecast period in 2019. Although IDC had expected the second quarter of 2015 to be a transition period, final results nonetheless shrank even more than expected due to the ongoing large inventory of notebook PCs from prior quarters and severe constraints posed by the decline of major currencies relative to the U.S. Dollar. In addition to economic issues, free upgrades of Windows 10, a relative dearth of newer models in the short term, and distribution channe...

The personal computing (PC) market has now undergone numerous attempts to stimulate a high-growth revival, without success. Back in March of 2014, I shared a market update entitled " Final Closure: End of the Wintel Era is Now Undeniable ." To some market observers, that perspective may seem overly pessimistic. And yet, here we are in August of 2015 and the outlook doesn't appear to have materially changed. Granted, there's some pent-up demand that exists in the PC marketplace, but the real solution is unlikely to be 'more of the same' vendor response. ​The recent launch of Microsoft Windows 10 during the second half of 2015 now has many PC OEM vendors hoping that the revamped operating system software will trigger a replacement opportunity for aging laptop and notebook computers. According to the latest market study by ABI Research, total system shipments for portable computing are predicted to reach 165 million units for full-year 2015 -- which is esse...

Those of us that follow trends in the global consumer electronics market knew that this day would come.  ​Media Tablets will overtake Notebook PCs as the largest mobile computing category this year, according to the latest worldwide market study by ABI Research. Tablets, now viewed by many analysts to be in direct competition with all forms of notebook PCs, will gain a 52 percent majority share of the mobile computing market by the end of 2015. ABI Research forecasts the flat overall growth of the notebook PC segment, due to longer replacement cycles and device competition, causing notebook devices to drop from 51 percent market share in 2013 to 48 percent in 2015. Moreover, the current downward trend will continue beyond this year. Notebook PC market share is forecast to decline again to 47% by year-end 2016. Although some tablets are competing for share of wallet with notebook PCs, most tablets serve a niche that emphasizes portability and connectivity to the Internet -- ...

While Microsoft and Intel were busy planning the introduction of a high-price Ultrabook PC concept -- that was focused on vendor needs for higher profit margins -- Google was working on developing a low-price Chromebook model that was targeted at an under-served market. What's the primary benefits of a Chromebook? They're cloud-centric, budget-friendly, fast-booting, battery-efficient, secure computing devices that are more functional than media tablets and less expensive than the typical notebook PC. Besides, the Chromebook is a forward-thinking device, enabled by a software platform that has already transformed server computing -- the operating system is based on open-source Linux. Built for the Mobile Cloud Era In 2014, Chromebooks gained more traction in the North America market, and are set to continue growing as online streaming devices become more popular among consumers and business buyers. According to the latest market study by ABI Research, Chromebooks exp...

Personal computer (PC) vendors have a complex market development challenge in 2015 -- learn how to embrace ongoing demand volatility. Worldwide PC shipments are expected to fall by -4.9 percent in 2015, while growth projections for 2016 and 2017 were raised slightly, according to the latest study by International Data Corporation (IDC). Fourth quarter 2014 (4Q14) results were 1.7 percent ahead of forecast, but economic and product changes will create more challenges in the short term. Total 2015 volume is projected at 293.1 million PCs, slipping a little further to 291.4 million in 2019. In value terms, the PC market reached $201 billion in 2014 -- that's a decline of -0.8 percent, and is expected to fall another -6.9 percent in 2015 with potentially smaller declines in subsequent years bringing the total to $175 billion by 2019. Furthermore, while recent processor updates have generated some positive momentum, more significant product refreshes -- such as Intel Skylake and M...

Back in April of 2012, a key trend had emerged -- people were choosing lower-cost notebook PCs. The Wintel partnership was concerned. If the trend gained momentum, then profits would surely be impacted. Intel responded with the Ultrabook campaign , in an attempt to "correct" the market. The result of this huge marketing investment by Intel was " cinematic and epic " -- but clearly not in a way that was intended. The outcome from the campaign and the apparent lessons-learned are truly one of the most insightful marketing case studies of the decade. Why? This was an irrefutable example of how traditional mass-media marketing was no longer able to significantly influence buyer sentiment. Moreover, the size of an advertising and promotion budget won't translate into market development gains, if and when it rejects a compelling trend in the marketplace. The Reality: a New Era of Computing The Average Selling Price (ASP) of Ultrabooks and media tablets declin...

While few people may remember the anticlimax that followed the huge marketing campaign for the launch of Intel-based high-cost Ultrabook PCs, industry analysts can't help but reflect upon that event as they review the impact of low-cost notebooks on the personal computing market today. Following a second consecutive quarter of softer than expected demand, International Data Corporation (IDC) has once again lowered its worldwide media tablet plus 2-in-1 forecast for 2014 to 233.1 million units. Based upon their latest market study, they now forecast a 6.5 percent year-over-year growth rate -- which is well below the 12.1 percent growth rate previously forecast. "When we look at the global picture, it would be easy to say that the tablet market is slowing down," said Jean Philippe Bouchard, research director at IDC . "But, when we start digging into the regional dynamics, we realize that there is still a good appetite for this product category." While matu...

Overall worldwide PC shipments are expected to fall by -3.7 percent in 2014, that's a slight improvement from the previous forecast of -6 percent, according to the latest market study by International Data Corporation (IDC). PC shipments in emerging regions remain constrained by ongoing competition from alternative devices such as media tablets, and a number of economic challenges. However, commercial demand and even a rekindling of consumer interest in mature markets helped to boost results for the first half of 2014 as well as the outlook for the rest of the year. PC shipments in mature regions are now projected to grow by 5.6 percent in 2014 – the highest since 2010 -- with both consumer and commercial segments showing positive growth. On the other hand, the outlook for emerging market has been lowered slightly to reflect reduced stability and economic conditions in Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and Central Europe, the Middle East and Africa (CEMA). PC market drivers fo...

An estimated 5.1 million Ultraportable PCs shipped in Q1 2014, experiencing approximately 65 percent growth in total shipments year-over-year, according to the latest market study by ABI Research. Moreover, ultraportable shipments are forecast to continue expanding globally. This growth demonstrates that there is still a need for these devices, even within an otherwise dreary PC market. By 2019, Ultraportables will experience a CAGR increase of 26 percent to 109.4 million units. "Ultraportables continue to be a strong force in the PC market and ABI Research expects shipments to continue growing through 2019," said Stephanie Van Vactor, research analyst at ABI Research . Beyond Ultraportables, ABI still sees the broader portable PC market continuing its struggle to regain high market growth, but due to the overcrowding of the market may never relive those high growth numbers. Chromebooks, however, are the main low-cost device growth story. Initial Chromebook adopti...

Truly, few (if any) analysts expected the PC market to show signs of a recovery in America, but that's what happened. The U.S. market showed strong 6.9 percent year-on-year growth in the second quarter of 2014. Continuing upgrades of Windows XP systems boosted shipments in commercial portables and desktops, helping the commercial segment of the market. At the same time, retail acceptance of emerging product categories helped the consumer segment to somewhat stabilize. Global Quarterly Results and Industry Outlook  Worldwide PC shipments totaled 74.4 million units in the second quarter of 2014 (2Q14), a year-on-year decline of -1.7 percent, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC). The results reflect the smallest decline in global PC shipments since the second quarter of 2012 when declining shipments of mini notebooks combined with a surge in media tablet sales to disrupt the PC market. Buoyed by both continued business PC replacements and returning consumer in...

Worldwide PC shipments are expected to fall by -6.0 percent in 2014, according to the latest market study by International Data Corporation (IDC). Mature regions did benefit primarily from a recovery surge in Western Europe while other mature regions performed modestly above expectations in the first quarter of 2014 (1Q14). Emerging regions continued to see weak demand and difficult conditions, although the economic environment in Latin America had the largest impact. The impact to emerging regions – a cornerstone of long-term market stability – outweighed the short-term boost seen in mature regions. As a result, longer-term growth was lowered slightly (by less than a percent for 2015-2017), with 2015 at -1.6 percent year on year with subsequent years still between 0 and -1 percent growth. "2014 represents an important shift for the PC market in emerging regions," said Jay Chou, senior research analyst at IDC . "Shipments in these parts of the world are expected to...

Global personal computer sales continue to be weak in a marketplace that favors other devices -- such as smartphones and media tablets. Worldwide PC shipments totaled 76.6 million units in the first quarter of 2014 -- that's a 1.7 percent decline from the first quarter of 2013, according to the latest market study by Gartner. "The end of XP support by Microsoft on April 8 has played a role in the easing decline of PC shipments," said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner . Among key countries, Japan was greatly affected by the end of XP support, registering a 35 percent year-over-year increase in PC shipments. The growth was also boosted by sales tax change. The PC market continued to be tough for many vendors. Economies of scale matter tremendously in this high-volume, low-profit market, which is forcing some vendors -- such as Sony -- out of the market. Lenovo experienced the strongest growth among the top five vendors. Its shipments grew 10.9 percent, a...

The confluence of hybrid cloud services -- based upon open source technologies like OpenStack -- and low-cost high-value Chrome OS notebook PCs is going to become a powerful combination that will gain momentum in 2014 and beyond. Here's an example of that key trend in motion. An estimated 2.1 million Chromebooks shipped in 2013 with nearly 89 percent of total shipments reaching North America, according to the latest global market study by ABI Research. As Chromebook shipments expand globally, ABI Research now forecasts an increase of 28 percent CAGR to 11 million units in 2019. “ABI Research tracked Chromebooks across six regions and found the average selling price (ASP) to be $338,” said Stephanie Van Vactor, research analyst at ABI Research . ABI believes that this truly budget-driven device is a disruptive force to the portable PC market. The ASP and shipment growth of Chromebooks shows the market responding to products for the budget conscious -- a reaction from a slowl...

According to the latest market study by Juniper Research , recent findings reveal that vendors of Tablet Hybrid devices will ship nearly 50 million units by 2018, rising from an estimated 9.5 million in 2013. Tablet hybrids, also known as 2-in-1 devices, are designed to achieve additional or improved tablet functionality through the use of accessories, or can be in the form of an Ultrabook that can have the screen removed to perform as a slate. As hybrid devices are relatively young, there is a distinct lack of industry standardization for what it actually constitutes -- when a media tablet or notebook PC becomes a hybrid. Also, due to the lack of demand for these devices, the shipment figures released by vendors do not granulate to the required level. As mentioned recently on Digital Lifescapes, Microsoft and Intel are likely to invest a significant amount of their 2014 marketing budget to motivate their channel partners to introduce and promote these high-cost devices in the m...

In the recent past, Apple iOS and Google Android have delivered a windfall for both vendors. Moreover, this is a pivotal year for media tablets as the traditional markets leading computing and consumer electronics (CE) deployments reach a tipping point and give way to growth regions. The most mature worldwide markets -- including North America, Western Europe, Japan and South Korea -- are yielding to other growth regions -- such as Latin America, Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa -- where the connectivity infrastructure and distribution channels are coming of age. According to the latest market study by ABI Research, they forecast 200 million branded tablet shipments this year -- that's a 20 percent gain year-over-year from the 166 million shipments in 2013. With more choices than ever for mobile computing, consumers and businesses will weigh the role of tablets along with ultrabook PCs and large screen smartphones -- the so-called phablets -- to satisfy their communicat...

While much of the prior demand for media tablets was for personal use at home, usage is now increasing rapidly in the workplace -- threatening to disrupt the traditional players. Other changes in the marketplace, such as the disappointing results for Ultrabook PC sales, are forcing Microsoft and Intel to rethink their market development strategy. The two legacy PC market players have chosen to promote 2-in-1 devices -- a Windows 8 tablet with detachable keyboard -- in the hope that they gain traction in the workplace. They will likely target these devices at CIOs and IT managers that are at odds with their employee's Bring Your Own Device (BYOD) policy demands. Both companies have briefed industry analysts about their new strategy, with the expectation that their forecasts of 2-in-1 demand and adoption could eventually result in meaningful new sales for these expensive Windows 8 devices. Only time will tell if this approach will produce the desired outcome for Microsoft and Int...