China�s pending 3G license auction continues to hold the mobile community in suspense. The new Pyramid Research report assesses the potential outcomes of the auction and tracks the market opportunity. The new report stipulates that the infrastructure opportunity will be $9 billion for vendors in the 2006-2009 period with 2007 alone generating approximately $4 billion, based on data from Pyramid Research forecasts. Additionally, 3G subscribers are expected to account for 15 percent of China�s mobile market by 2010. Regarding the 3G auction, Pyramid Research expects three nationwide 3G licenses to be awarded with one going to a fixed operator. An interesting scenario discussed in the report assesses the possibility of China Telecom and China Netcom consolidating and offering a nationwide 3G solution. Another scenario examines the possibility of dissolving China Unicom and dispersing its GSM subscriber base to China Telecom and the CDMA network to China Netcom � making way for both a TD-SCDMA and CDMA2000 operator. Supporting these scenarios was transfer of two top executives from China Mobile and China Unicom to fixed line operator China Telecom signaling that mobile will become a key component in the latter�s strategy.
Try to imagine this scenario, that General Motors and Ford were given exclusive franchises to build America's interstate highway system, and also all the highways that connect local communities. Now imagine that, based upon a financial crisis, these troubled companies decided to convert all "their" local arteries into toll-roads -- they then use incremental toll fees to severely limit all travel to and from small businesses. Why? This handicapping process reduced the need to invest in building better new roads, or repairing the dilapidated ones. But, wouldn't that short-sighted decision have a detrimental impact on the overall national economy? It's a moot point -- pure fantasy -- you say. The U.S. political leadership would never knowingly risk the nation's social and economic future on the financial viability of a restrictive duopoly. Or, would they? The 21st century Global Networked Economy travels across essential broadband infrastructure. The forced intro...