Skip to main content

New Tech Boom, It's Not a Bubble

Wired magazine reports Silicon Valley is roaring back to life, as startups mint millionaires and Web dreams take flight. But, no, this is not another bubble. Here's why -- In recent months, the breathtaking ascent of Google has lit a fire under its competitors, which include practically everyone in the online world. The result is all too familiar: seven-figure recruiting packages, snarled traffic on Highway 101, and a general sense that the boom is back.

A boom perhaps, but not a bubble. There's a difference. Bubbles are inflated with hot air and speculation. They end with a wet pop, leaving behind messy splatters. Booms, on the other hand, tend to have strong foundations and gentle conclusions. Bubbles can be good: They spark a huge amount of investment that can make things easier for the next generation, even as they bankrupt the current one. But booms - with their more rational allocation of capital - are better. The problem is that exuberance can make it hard to tell one from the other.

Six years ago, people were likewise making the case that the dotcom frenzy was more boom than bubble, built as it was on the legitimate ground of the Internet revolution. And until late 1999 or so, maybe that was true. Then the Wall Street speculators gained the upper hand, and growth became malignant.

Popular posts from this blog

The $150B Race for AI Dominance

Two years after ChatGPT captured the world's imagination, there's a dichotomy in the enterprise artificial intelligence (AI) market. On one side, technology vendors are making unprecedented investments in AI infrastructure and new feature capabilities. On the other, there's measured adoption from customers who carefully weigh the AI costs and proven use case benefits. Artificial Intelligence Market Development The scale of new investment is significant. Cloud vendors alone were expected to invest over $150 billion in capital expenditures in 2024, with AI infrastructure being the primary driver. This massive bet on AI's future is reflected in the rapid growth of AI server revenue. Looking at just two major players - Dell Technologies and HPE - their combined AI server revenue surged from $1.2 billion in Q4 2023 to $4.4 billion in Q3 2024, highlighting the dramatic expansion. Yet despite these investments, the revenue returns remain relatively modest. The latest TBR resea...