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Premature Saturation: Few Net Newcomers

A new study from Parks Associates has found few new households willing to subscribe to Internet services, which will limit 2006 growth in overall Internet penetration to one percent, rising from 63 percent to 64 percent by year's end. According to "The National Technology Scan (2005)," a survey of 1,000 U.S. homes, there are currently 39 million homes without Internet access, and among these, only eight million own a computer, an obvious prerequisite for Internet adoption. Moreover, the majority of these PC households will not subscribe to an Internet service at any cost.

The study found only two million offline homes are planning to get Internet services in 2006. Another 300,000 homes said they might subscribe if offered a cheaper service. At the same time, 14 million U.S. households do not have Internet service at home but access the Web at work or other locations, such as a library or an Internet caf�.

"We are clearly facing a problem of demand, not supply," said John Barrett, director of research at Parks Associates. "Computers and Internet service have never been cheaper, yet many households still show little enthusiasm for the technology."

Reasons given for this lack of interest vary. Among households that will not subscribe to an Internet service at any price, 31 percent said having access at work is sufficient for their Internet needs. Another 18 percent simply claimed, "I am not interested in anything on the Internet." Thirty-nine percent of households cited "other" reasons for their lack of interest. "We present them with several possible reasons, and their response is typically 'none of the above," Barrett said.

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