Skip to main content

Process for Predicting Technology Success

According to Forrester Research, companies are constantly launching new products that they hope will strike a chord with consumers. But how did Apple's iPod hit it big while WebTV and the tablet PC failed to catch on with mainstream consumers?

The answer lies in our new report, "TechPotential: Predicting Technology Success." Their research concludes that success or failure rests on a simple truth: Consumers adopt products when they can easily identify the benefits of those products and when they believe those benefits are worth the effort and cost (investment in time, energy and money).

TechPotential is a tool that Forrester has developed to forecast sales of new consumer technology products and services. It evaluates three aspects of a product's launch -- consumer demand, usability and design, and marketing execution -- to project five-year unit sales of new products. The growth curve is driven by three factors:

-Consumer Demand -- which is determined by the consumer's negotiation of the cost and benefits of the product, dictates the potential five-year growth of a product by identifying a universe of possible consumers, analyzing comparable products, and estimating potential consumer demand.

-Usability -- rating a product's design and usability based on four criteria: 1) consumer first impression; 2) installation; 3) first use; and 4) long-term value. Usability can drive word of mouth for a new product and determines how fast a product can grow.

-Execution -- assessing the producer's ability to effectively market and distribute the product and to forge partnerships that will benefit the product's uptake. These marketing factors can slow or quicken the pace at which a new product sells, especially in the first year.

TechPotential is designed to reveal not just which products will succeed but also why -- and how to redirect strategy to maximize that success.

Popular posts from this blog

Industrial and Manufacturing Technology Growth

In an evolving era of rapid advancement, market demand for innovative technology in the industrial and manufacturing sectors is skyrocketing. Leaders are recognizing the immense potential of digital transformation and are driving initiatives to integrate technologies into their business operations.  These initiatives aim to enhance efficiency, reduce costs, and ultimately drive growth and competitiveness in an increasingly digital business upward trajectory. The industrial and manufacturing sectors have been the backbone of the Global Networked Economy, contributing $16 trillion in value in 2021. Industrial and Manufacturing Tech Market Development   This growth represents a 20 percent increase from 2020, highlighting the resilience and adaptability of these sectors in the face of unprecedented challenges, according to the latest worldwide market study by ABI Research . The five largest manufacturing verticals -- automotive, computer and electronic, primary metal, food, and machinery -

Rise of AI-Enabled Smart Traffic Management

The demand for smart traffic management systems has grown due to rising urban populations and increasing vehicle ownership. With more people and cars concentrated in cities, problems like traffic congestion, air pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions are pressing issues. Since the early 2000s, government leaders have been exploring ways to leverage advances in IoT connectivity, sensors, artificial intelligence (AI), and data analytics to address these transportation challenges. The concept of a Smart City emerged in the 2010s, with smart mobility and intelligent traffic management as key components.  Smart Traffic Management Market Development Concerns about continued climate change, as well as cost savings from improved traffic flow, have further motivated local government investment in these advanced systems. According to the latest worldwide market study by Juniper Research, they found that by 2028, smart traffic management investment will be up by 75 percent from a 2023 figure of

AI Software Market will Reach $251 Billion

The growth in Artificial Intelligence (AI) software could lead to many benefits. As more organizations adopt AI, they may become more efficient, productive, and able to offer improved products and services. The global job market could also expand, with demand growing for roles like AI engineers and technicians. Plus, AI apps could enable breakthroughs in fields like healthcare, transportation, and energy. The worldwide AI software market will grow from $64 billion in 2022 to nearly $251 billion in 2027 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.4 percent, according to the latest market study by International Data Corporation (IDC). AI Software Market Development The forecast for AI-centric software includes Artificial Intelligence Platforms, AI Applications, AI System Infrastructure Software (SIS), and AI Application Development and Deployment (AD&D) software (excluding AI platforms). However, it does not include Generative AI (GenAI) platforms and applications, which IDC recent