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Prediction: Three Networks Become OneNet

The wireless, Internet and phone networks that presently comprise the global telecommunications infrastructure will generate nearly $1.2 trillion in revenue this year, but according to a new market analysis report from Insight Research, there is a very real possibility that by the close of 2011 one of the three networks may come to dominate the others and thereby change the telecommunications revenue picture completely.

In this market research study, Insight examines three possible scenarios for future telecom revenue and subscriber growth: the three current networks evolve along current trajectories; the Internet comes to dominate all communications; or wireless communications dominate all communications. The study projects revenue and subscriber growth for each scenario over time.

According to the study, �The Future of Telecommunications 2006-2011,� each scenario for future growth is based upon a shared set of verities: continuing growth in communications usage; users expecting greater flexibility and lower prices for their communications services, and spectacular near-term growth of video and other image services. For each scenario, the study also evaluates the impact of technology, regulatory, and business issues such as assets and depreciation, revenue growth or declines, and the impact of competition.

Each scenario yields a very different picture of subscriber and revenue growth for narrowband and broadband wireless and wireline services in each global region, though only $752 billion dollars of revenue separated the scenario with the greatest revenue potential from the scenario that generated the least revenue over the five year period.

�This study imagines the future of the telecommunication industry using a premise that everyone has considered: what if the Internet or my wireless provider is the only way I communicate five years from now? What would that mean for the worldwide communications industry?� asks Insight Research president Robert Rosenberg. �In this study, we develop detailed scenarios to describe how the worldwide telecommunications landscape will change. Surprisingly, there are not tectonic shifts in revenue � though subscriber growth and profitability were indeed vastly different,� Rosenberg concluded.

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