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TIA's Telecom Market Review and Forecast

Total spending on Internet access (broadband Internet access and dial-up Internet access) in the international markets -- Canada, Europe, Middle East/Africa, Latin America and Asia/Pacific -- reached $113.3 billion in 2005 and is expected to grow to $139.8 billion in 2006 and $221.6 billion by 2009, an 18.3 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR), according to the Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA), the U.S.-based trade group.

High-speed broadband access will drive equipment revenue in the next four years as governments throughout the world actively support broadband expansion. South Korea has the world's most advanced broadband market, with 70 percent household penetration in 2005. The Netherlands is second at 60 percent, followed by Canada at 52 percent.

Denmark and Japan are the only other countries with broadband penetration exceeding 40 percent. The United States ranks sixth in broadband penetration at 39 percent, followed by Finland and Switzerland at 35 percent and 31 percent, respectively. France at 28 percent and Sweden at 27 percent round out the top 10.

Although Asia/Pacific has two of the top five countries in broadband penetration, as well as the second-largest broadband market in absolute size in China, with 35 million broadband subscribers in 2005, it ranks fourth as a region behind Canada, the United States and Europe, with an overall penetration of 11.5 percent. By 2009, nearly a third of all households in Asia/Pacific will access the Internet through a broadband connection.

Europe ranks third in broadband penetration at 17.8 percent in 2005, a figure TIA expects will more than double to 38.5 percent in 2009. Canada will remain the leader in 2009, as three-quarters of all households are expected to be using broadband. The United States will retain its number two ranking as a region, with penetration rising to 63.1 percent.

From a small base, broadband penetration in Latin America is taking off. By 2009, TIA projects broadband penetration in Latin America will rise to 12.8 percent, more than four times the 2.9 percent total in 2005. In Middle East/Africa, less than 1 percent of all households have a broadband connection. A market is beginning to emerge in that region; TIA expects penetration to edge up to nearly 3 percent in 2009.

Broadband access spending will increase to $81.2 billion in 2006 and $156.1 billion in 2009 from $57.6 billion in 2005, a 28.3 percent CAGR, the fastest growth of any category. However, that growth will come at the expense of dial-up, which TIA projects will grow at only a 4.2 percent CAGR reaching $58.6 billion in 2006 and $65.5 billion in 2009, up from $55.7 billion in 2005.

As the Internet market expands in these international regions and online traffic grows, the infrastructure will need to expand. Hence, TIA predicts revenue from telecommunications equipment will increase at an 8.3 percent CAGR through 2009, from $275.9 billion in 2005 to $379.5 billion in 2009.

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