Skip to main content

HD DVD will Provide the Home Video Upside

While the U.S. home video business is in an apparent decline, Kagan Research sees high definition (HD) DVDs halting the downturn and helping achieve modest growth to reach a peak expected in 2012.

A new Kagan study forecasts that U.S. consumer spending for home video software in the important sell-through category will rise from nearly $17 billion this year to nearly $28 billion by 2012. Those figures exclude the declining video rental category.

The estimate represents good news for the total U.S. home video software business that contracted 1 percent in 2005, and looks to continue its slide, but by less than 1 percent in 2006 and again 2007 (for both sell-through and rental categories combined for DVDs and VHS tapes). Kagan forecasts total U.S. home video software revenue will again rise from 2008-2012.

Thus, U.S. home video software will eke out a low single digit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the next decade through 2015. But in 2013-2015, video-on-demand will cut into home video rental revenue, which is expected to slide from the 2012 peak.

"While high-definition DVD will lift the video market back up, it's in for a couple of rocky years," says Kagan Research analyst Wade Holden. "We are projecting overall video retail revenue to decline through 2007 as VHS revenues plummet to near insignificant levels and the growth rates on standard definition DVD revenue continue to drop."

The new impetus in 2008 is hi-def DVD -- now the object of a format war between Sony-backed Blu-Ray and Toshiba-pushed HD DVD. Hardware for the two incompatible formats was introduced this year, creating consumer uncertainty. Eventually, either one format will prevail or dual format players will be offered, clearing the way for a hi-def boom, notes Holden.

Popular posts from this blog

Trillion-Dollar Smart Power Grid Transformation

The global energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation. Renewable energy sources like solar and wind are rapidly gaining ground as we transition towards net-zero emissions. However, this transition hinges on a crucial but often overlooked factor: the modernization and expansion of our aging power grids across the globe. For decades the backbone of our electricity delivery system has been largely static. The influx of variable renewable energy sources like solar and wind presents a new challenge. Smart Power Grid Market Development Integrating these resources effectively requires a Smarter, more Responsive grid that can handle fluctuating power generation and efficiently distribute it across vast distances. This is where a new trillion-dollar energy market growth opportunity emerges. According to a recent worldwide market study by ABI Research, global investments in public grid digitalization and transmission network expansion must exceed $4 trillion by 2030 to meet our