Skip to main content

Prediction that Spam Will Diminish E-Mail Use

According to a newly published IDC study, a resurgence of spam and the increased frequency of being replaced by text messaging and voice over IP (VoIP) calling, especially among younger consumers and workers, will make it more difficult for email to maintain its status as the leading mission-critical electronic communications method.

IDC predicts that nearly 97 billion emails, over 40 billion of which will be spam messages, will be sent daily worldwide in 2007. This is the first year that spam email volumes are expected to exceed person-to-person email volumes sent worldwide.

"Spam volumes are growing faster than expected due to the success of image-based spam in bypassing antispam filters and of email sender identity spoofing in getting higher response rates," said Mark Levitt, program vice president for IDC's Collaborative Computing and Enterprise Workplace research. "Instant messaging, joined by free and low-cost VoIP calling, will result in slower email growth, especially among teens and young adults."

I believe that the concept of spamming consumers is a byproduct of legacy mass-market advertiser thinking -- those schooled in broadcasting irrelevant messages to people, purely on the basis that they have the means to do so. That traditional model demonstrates a contempt for consumer's time and attention. It's grounded in the belief that there is no negative consequence to applying interruption-based marketing principles.

IDC estimates that the size of business email volumes sent annually worldwide in 2007 will approach 5 exabytes, nearly doubling the amount over the past two years (Note: 1 exabyte = 1 thousand petabytes = 1 million terabytes = 1 billion gigabytes). IDC believes that email solution providers and their customers need to respond to these continued threats to email by doing the following:

- Recognize that email will be only one of several core elements of the emerging unified communications vision that solution providers will offer customers.

- Deploy multiple layers of commercial antispam software, appliances, and services that are regularly updated to increase effectiveness over time.

- Provide equal access to email from desktop and wireless access devices with Ajax and push email.

Popular posts from this blog

Frontier AI Peaked. Here's What Comes Next

The prevailing narrative around artificial intelligence (AI) has been one of relentless scale. Bigger models, bigger clusters, bigger budgets. The assumption, largely unchallenged until recently, was that raw parameter count translated directly into competitive advantage. New research from Omdia suggests it's time to retire that assumption. According to the latest market study by Omdia, parameter growth in frontier AI models has slowed to around 5 percent annually since 2021, a stark contrast to the more than hundredfold expansion seen between 2019 and 2021. Enterprise AI Market Development For executives who have been making infrastructure and investment decisions based on the assumption that AI would keep demanding ever-larger, ever-more-expensive hardware, this finding deserves serious attention. The race to the top of the model size leaderboard has, at least for now, plateaued. Crucially, Omdia's analysts are not reading this as an AI winter. Alexander Harrowell, senior pri...