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Blu-ray DVD Predicted as Leading Standard

As consumers continue to embrace more high-definition (HD) consumer electronics (CE) products and services, next-generation DVD players are poised to experience significant growth over the next five years, according to the latest market study by Parks Associates.

The new report estimates that, with set-top box models and game consoles combined, more than 32 million Blu-ray and HD DVD players will be sold in United States by 2011, an 85 percent increase from the 4.9 million units estimated to be sold in 2007.

"Purchasing or renting DVDs will continue to be a dominant way for consumers to view content," stated Chris Roden, Research Analyst at Parks Associates. "What has yet to be determined is which format will become the standard, HD DVD or Blu-ray?"

According to the report, consumer confusion or a general lack of awareness is still prevalent -- with less than 10 percent of mainstream U.S. consumers stating that they are familiar with the HD DVD or Blu-ray formats.

"However, we are starting to see the pendulum swing slowly in one direction," said Roden. "Recent retail developments, support from major Hollywood studios, and inclusion of the format in the PlayStation 3 video game console puts the Blu-ray format in the lead."

In their report entitled "Next Generation DVD Players: Will History Repeat?," Parks Associates investigates consumer preferences and industry support for the competing DVD formats, with analysis of market strategies and adoption, plus a prediction of the outcome in this standards battle.

I believe that royalties and licensing issues will likely be a key deciding factor, since that was clearly the case with the now infamous prior Betamax vs VHS video tape recorder standards battle. If the past is any predictor of the future, technology supremacy will have little impact on the eventual outcome.

However, it may be too soon to call a clear winner in this CE marathon. Is it possible that the standards could co-exist, by finding their own application niche in the marketplace? We'll just have to wait and see.

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