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Major Shifts in Telecom Growth, Not Pay-TV

Revenue from consumer telecommunication network services will grow at a steady annual rate of about 5.7 percent, on average, over the next five years, according to the latest market study by In-Stat.

The strongest growth will be in the broadband and pay-TV sectors, but 60 percent of total revenue will be derived from consumer mobile services, the high-tech market research firm says.

In-Stat just completed some new research and aggregated it with a wealth of existing research to produce a detailed quantitative analysis of this important market.

"The digital divide will continue to grow. By 2012 broadband penetration in developed countries will exceed 85 percent, while developing countries languish at less than 10 percent penetration" says Keith Nissen, the analyst who authored the report.

Over the next five years, 150 million PSTN lines will be eliminated -- yet total voice revenue worldwide will remain steady. The ME/AFR and CALA regions will experience high mobile subscriber growth.

Mobile operators in developed nations must look to new 3G applications and bundled services for increased ARPU. Despite the anticipated rapid growth of telcoTV services, in 2012, 73 percent of total pay-TV households worldwide will still be cable TV service subscribers.

The research provides a regional and global view of the future telecom market for consumer network services. It provides global and regional subscriber and revenue forecasts (NA, Europe, ME/AFR, APAC and CALA) for consumer network services including broadband, PSTN/VoIP, pay-TV, and mobile services through 2012.

In-Stat's market study found the following:

- The number of VoIP subscribers will more than double in the next four years.

- 2008 is the year that revenue from Pay-TV services surpasses revenues from fixed voice services.

- By 2012 broadband revenue will be getting close to fixed voice service revenue.

- While the Middle East and Africa region has the highest growth rate, the Asia-Pac region will be by far the largest market in 2012.

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