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Forecast Predicts Rapid Growth of Mobile Commerce

Over the past 5 years, the scale of mobile commerce in its various forms -- such as banking, money transfer, retail, ticketing and coupons -- has grown at a remarkable rate. Several key factors have served to fuel the deployment of new transaction-based services and their adoption by end users.

Juniper Research has found that the combination of mobile phone and media tablet users will make 195 billion mobile commerce transactions annually by 2019 -- that's up from 72 billion in 2014.

According to their latest worldwide market study, highest growth rates are expected in the NFC (Near Field Communications) sector.

Moreover, usage is expected to be buoyed by the launch of Apple Pay, together with a host of anticipated deployments by banks using solutions based on HCE (Host Card Emulation) technology.

However, the highest net increase in transaction volumes will occur in the digital goods sector, fueled by a surge in micro-payments for in-app purchases, notably within arenas such as online social gaming.

Juniper highlighted the opportunity for digital content monetization presented by direct billing from mobile service providers, particularly within under-banked regions and other demographics in the emerging markets.


"Storefronts that have deployed carrier billing solutions have already seen positive results across a range of indicators - higher conversion rates, higher average transaction values, higher transaction volumes," said Dr Windsor Holden, head of consultancy and forecasting at Juniper Research.

For the first time, retailers can monetize consumers who would otherwise have been excluded either because they lacked a credit card or because they were unwilling to enter card details online.

Meanwhile, the study observed that many mobile ticketing deployments had seen rapid adoption rates immediately post-launch, suggesting a pent-up demand for such services.

In the U.S. market, the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority deployed mTicket ,accounting for 15 percent of ticket sales within 9 months of launch, while New York Waterways has reached 25 percent in less than 2 years.

Other findings from the market study include:
  • There is significant transactional migration from desktop to mobile as consumers increasingly "media-stack" (i.e. make purchases on their devices while watching TV).
  • Rather than focusing purely on payments, stakeholders need to emphasize the synergies between mobile payment and loyalty to persuade retailers to become engaged.

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