Skip to main content

Why Autonomous Vehicle Adoption will Grow Slowly

By 2025, just about 15 percent of new passenger car sales worldwide will be autonomous vehicles, with either conditional or full autonomy (level 3 or level 4) capabilities, according to the latest market study by Canalys.

Canalys also estimates that only 1.3 percent of cars sold in 2016 will offer partial autonomy (level 2) and the only cars with conditional or full autonomy in 2016 are for research and development purposes or being used in small public trials.

The few cars available in 2016 with level 2 autonomy come from premium car brands, and the functionality is an optional feature. Autopilot from Tesla, Pilot Assist from Volvo, Intelligent Drive from Mercedes-Benz, and Traffic Jam Assist from Audi and BMW are the leading examples of level 2 autonomy solutions.

Autonomous Vehicle Market Development

The functionality has taken a long time to reach the market in volume, reflecting the slow pace of innovation and the high level of conservatism in the regulation-bound automotive industry. But things are changing: most automotive OEMs have announced launch plans for autonomous vehicles.

"For the first few years of autonomous driving, vehicles will have hybrid autonomy – switching between levels of autonomy depending on the driving environment, the type of road, the speed of traffic or mood of the driver," said Chris Jones, chief analyst at Canalys.

Full autonomy, which does not necessarily need the human driver, will be possible on pre-defined stretches of road, specific lanes of a freeway, zones of a city, campuses or autonomous vehicle-only car parks.

Human drivers will choose what mode to use and the journey could, but doesn't have to, involve a mix of human and machine driving. In full autonomous mode, the vehicles could simply drop off passengers at their destination and drive themselves away to less congested areas to park, or make themselves available to be hailed as a shared transport service.

How we own, use and interact with cars is already changing, according to the Canalys assessment. Fewer young people are obtaining a drivers license -- many prefer alternative forms of transportation. Therefore, Canalys believes that automobile sales will soon start to decrease in large urban markets.

New Trends will Transform Urban Areas

Meanwhile, regulators will embrace the new technology and work with automotive OEMs to help ease the transition onto major highways and urban roads. Moreover, the required autonomous vehicle technology should not dramatically affect the cost of a vehicle. Several things must occur first.

Sensors must get smaller and cheaper. The public must trust the systems and their capabilities must be well communicated. Urban planning will need rethinking to allow for an autonomous future, which would ease and ultimately eliminate congestion and increase safety on large city roads.

Popular posts from this blog

Digital Transformation Spending Reaches $1.8 Trillion

Ongoing investment in business technology will remain on track, despite concerns about the global economic outlook which continues to evolve in 2022. Enterprise CIOs and CTOs are focused on operational profitability and digital business growth goals that are enabled by strategic IT initiatives. Global spending on the Digital Transformation (DX) of business practices, products, and organizations is forecast to reach $1.8 trillion in 2022 -- that's an increase of 17.6 percent over 2021, according to the latest market study by International Data Corporation (IDC). Many anticipated DX investments will sustain this pace of growth throughout the 2021-2025 forecast period, with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.6 percent. Digital Transformation Global Market Development "IDC expects to see aggressive DX technology investment growth in 2022 following a minor slowdown during the pandemic period," said Craig Simpson, senior research manager at IDC . "As orga

Why Cloud-Native is The Future of IT Spending

The leading organizations that create a digital transformation plan will gain the most from their use of public cloud computing. However, some CIO and CTO leaders still struggle with how to build a modern cloud migration strategy. The worldwide cloud computing Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) market grew 41.4 percent in 2021, to a total of $90.9 billion -- that's up from $64.3 billion in 2020, according to the latest market study by Gartner. "The IaaS market continues to grow unabated as cloud-native becomes the primary architecture for modern workloads," said Sid Nag, vice president and analyst at Gartner . Cloud IaaS Market Development Cloud supports the scalability and composability that advanced technologies and applications require, while also enabling enterprise leaders to address emerging needs such as sovereignty, data integration, and enhanced customer experience. In 2021, the top five IaaS providers accounted for over 80 percent of the market. Amazon AWS conti

Private 5G Networks and Enterprise Wi-Fi Converge

The global enterprise wireless networking market is evolving. Driven by a desire to take advantage of the available 6 GHz communications spectrum, with greatly improved broadband throughput and latency rates, more organizations may choose to adopt Wi-Fi 6E technologies. According to the latest worldwide market study by ABI Research, shipments of Wi-Fi 6E access points and routers will rise from 1.5 million units in 2022 to 5.2 million units by 2024. Wireless spectrum expansion is just one facet of the commercial wireless network market transition, as the technology of Wi-Fi customer premise equipment will be upgraded once again with Wi-Fi 7 (IEEE 802.11be standard) devices. Enterprise Wireless Network Market Development "The adoption of Wi-Fi 7 access points will accelerate following the protocols standardization in 2024, and just two years later, most 6 GHz enabled access point shipments will be supporting Wi-Fi 7," said Andrew Spivey, industry analyst at ABI Research . Anot