The eCommerce payments landscape is significantly transformed, driven by technological advancements, changing consumer preferences, and evolving regulatory frameworks.
As global commerce increasingly shifts online, the methods and tech underlying eCommerce payments are evolving to meet growing demands for convenience, security, and efficiency.
According to the latest worldwide market study by Juniper Research, the global eCommerce transaction value is forecast to reach $11.4 trillion by 2029 -- that's up from $7 trillion in 2024.
This 63 percent increase over five years underscores eCommerce's rapid expansion and adoption in key markets across the globe.
eCommerce Payments Market Development
"Alternative payment options have grown substantially, with APM transaction volumes leapfrogging cards in emerging markets. As merchants look to attract new users and geographies, they must consider offering APMs a key strategy to accomplish this," said Lorien Carter, research analyst at Juniper Research.
One of the most striking findings from the study is the projected dominance of Alternative Payment Methods (APMs) in eCommerce. By 2029, an estimated 360 billion eCommerce transactions will be made using APMs, constituting 69 percent of global transactions.
This shift towards APMs, which include digital wallets and account-to-account payments, is particularly noteworthy as it enables non-card-centric market consumers, especially in emerging economies, to participate in online commerce.
The rise of APMs is not just a matter of convenience; it's a catalyst for financial inclusion. As these payment methods make eCommerce more accessible, previously unbanked consumers in emerging markets are expected to shift their purchasing habits online.
This transition is further supported by increased investment in both global and local delivery ecosystems, enhancing the overall value proposition of eCommerce.
From a regulatory perspective, the landscape is evolving. In Europe, the anticipated Payment Services Directive 3 (PSD3), expected to take effect in 2026, aims to strengthen user protection, address fraud risks, and increase competition in the payments industry.
Similarly, China has implemented regulations to scrutinize fees charged for financial services and enforce stricter risk management protocols, potentially lowering costs for merchants and fostering a more competitive environment.
Key trends and market growth opportunities include:
- Local acquiring is gaining momentum, offering merchants higher authorization rates and lower costs for cross-border transactions.
- As businesses increasingly adopt subscription models, the need for streamlined recurring payments becomes critical.
- Payment orchestration platforms represent a significant opportunity for simplifying the integration of multiple payment services.
- The application of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in payment routing is an exciting new development driving growth.
- As markets develop their digital infrastructure and delivery capabilities, online transactions and new behaviors will emerge.
- As regulations like PSD3 in Europe and new rules in China evolve, leaders can quickly adapt and innovate to gain a competitive edge.
Outlook for eCommerce Payment Applications Growth
The increasing dominance of APMs, the push for local acquiring, and the rise of sophisticated orchestration platforms are reshaping the whole eCommerce sector.
That said, I believe for both businesses and payment service providers, the key to success will lie in their ability to offer flexible, secure, and localized payment solutions to all customers.
As emerging markets continue to drive growth and regulations evolve to address new challenges, those online merchants and fintech providers who can navigate this complex landscape will be well-positioned to capitalize on the growth opportunities ahead.