As international travel rebounds to pre-pandemic levels in 2025, the mobile communication roaming market is at an inflection point. Emerging technologies and changing customer preferences are challenging traditional wholesale roaming agreements between mobile network operators (MNOs).
The global wholesale roaming market is projected to more than double, from $9 billion in 2024 to $20 billion by 2028. This surge will be fueled by the expanding deployment of 5G Standalone (SA) technology, which enables real-time roaming connections and activity monitoring.
But beneath this headline figure lies a complex landscape of regional variations and technological mobile service disruptions.
Global Mobile Roaming Market Development
Western Europe dominates inbound roaming connections, largely thanks to its Roam Like at Home (RLAH) initiative, which eliminates roaming charges among member countries.
Meanwhile, the Indian Subcontinent is emerging as a growth hotspot. Between 2024 and 2029, inbound roaming connections are forecast to increase by 78.8 percent.
This growth is attributed to significant technological advancements in connectivity infrastructure and rising inbound tourism.
Perhaps the most intriguing development in this space is the rise of travel eSIMs. Unlike traditional roaming, these digital SIMs allow travelers to connect directly to local networks abroad, bypassing their home MNO's roaming services entirely.
The financial implications of this shift are substantial - Juniper Research forecasts that MNOs will lose 777 percent more revenue to travel SIMs/eSIMs between 2023 and 2028.
This represents both a challenge and an opportunity. MNOs that fail to adapt may watch helplessly as their mobile roaming revenue streams decline rapidly.
However, forward-thinking operators can establish partnerships with eSIM aggregators and develop their own travel eSIM offerings, effectively converting potential losses into new revenue streams.
The rise of IoT is adding another dimension to the roaming landscape. By 2028, roaming revenue from IoT connections is expected to approach $2 billion globally, accounting for approximately 10 percent of the wholesale roaming market.
This trend underscores the growing importance of real-time monitoring solutions that can effectively identify and monetize roaming connections.
5G technology, particularly 5G SA, will be a game-changer. Unlike its predecessor, 5G Non-standalone (NSA), which operates within existing 4G infrastructures, 5G SA delivers the full capabilities promised by next-generation connectivity.
Network slicing, a feature of 5G SA, allows operators to create multiple virtual networks within a shared physical infrastructure.
This enables MNOs to tailor services to specific use cases without investing in multiple physical networks – a particularly valuable capability for managing diverse IoT applications.
Three key trends will shape the future of mobile roaming:
First, the battle between traditional roaming and travel eSIMs will intensify. The outcome will vary by region, with travel eSIMs gaining less traction in areas with established cost-effective roaming services, such as Europe's RLAH zone. However, in regions with expensive roaming provisions, travel eSIMs will continue to gain market share as a cost-effective alternative.
Second, 5G roaming will become increasingly important as mobile subscribers expect the same level of connectivity abroad that they enjoy at home. MNOs that fail to establish bilateral 5G roaming agreements risk losing customers to competitors offering superior roaming experiences.
Third, IoT roaming will emerge as a significant revenue stream, particularly as 5G enables more sophisticated connected device applications. Operators who invest in mechanisms to detect and steer these devices to appropriate networks will be well-positioned to capitalize on this growth.
Outlook for Mobile Roaming Revenue Growth
For MNOs and roaming vendors, the path forward is clear: embrace innovation, forge strategic partnerships, and develop flexible service offerings that meet the evolving needs of both consumer and IoT customers.
"Despite the high investment associated with standalone technologies, we believe that the increased roaming revenue achieved from better identification of connections will outweigh this investment," said Georgia Allen, research analyst at Juniper Research.
That said, I believe for telecom leaders willing to evolve their offerings, the upside growth opportunities are as boundless as global mobile communication networks.