New market data from Omdia confirms that the industry has crossed a decisive threshold; one that shifts the competitive playing field from growth-at-all-costs to monetization discipline.
For senior executives navigating media, advertising, and technology strategy, the implications extend well beyond entertainment.
A Historic Revenue Crossover
Online video revenue increased 13.5 percent to $176 billion in 2025, while pay-TV revenue declined 4 percent to $170 billion; marking the first time in the industry's history that streaming has surpassed legacy pay-TV in revenue terms.
This is not a rounding error or a statistical artifact; it represents the culmination of more than a decade of structural disruption to the traditional broadcast and cable TV model.
Global subscriptions to online video services reached 2.24 billion by the end of 2025, marking a 17.6 percent year-over-year increase from the 1.9 billion recorded in 2024.
As Omdia's practice leader Adam Thomas noted, the 17.6 percent increase in subscriptions in 2025 was the largest annual rise since 2021; a data point that deserves careful interpretation.
Strong headline growth can obscure an important nuance: much of this acceleration was artificially stimulated rather than organically driven.
The Ad-Tier Effect: Temporary Tailwind, Permanent Lesson
While the 2025 figures show that discounted ad-tier pricing can attract significant numbers of cost-conscious subscribers into the online video ecosystem, this is expected to be a short-term phenomenon.
Platforms including Netflix, Disney+, and Max have all expanded their advertising-supported subscription options at attractive price points, pulling in price-sensitive consumers who might otherwise have stayed on the sidelines.
It worked, but primarily as a demand stimulant rather than a durable growth engine.
Tony Gunnarsson, senior principal analyst at Omdia, stated the industry consensus plainly: the availability of attractively priced ad-tier options created a temporary uplift in SVOD subscriber numbers in 2025, but this has not changed the longer-term forecast, which remains for low single-digit annual growth rates for the foreseeable future.
The implication for enterprise strategists is important.
Advertising technology and programmatic platforms that expanded streaming inventory significantly in 2025 should not assume the same subscriber growth trajectory continues. The audience pool is large but increasingly static.
Saturation, Pricing Power, and the New Strategic Imperative
Online video platforms are changing their focus from growing subscriber numbers to maximizing revenue from their existing client base, often through price increases for their premium, non-ad-supported tiers.
This is a rational, mature-market response. When subscriber acquisition costs rise and organic growth slows, the economics of retention and monetization inevitably take center stage.
With several core online video markets approaching saturation, the focus on price rises to maximize profits will result in slower subscription growth, forecasting 5.6 percent growth for full-year 2026.
That figure, compared to 17.6 percent in 2025, represents a dramatic deceleration; and media executives should treat it as a structural reset rather than a temporary dip.
Meanwhile, pay-TV's trajectory tells a parallel story of managed decline.
Global pay-TV subscriptions continued their gradual decline, falling 1.8 percent year-on-year to 1.03 billion; even as the combined TV and video ecosystem grew.
Online video now accounts for 68.4 percent of the combined 3.3 billion subscriptions worldwide, a market share figure that will only move in one direction.
Outlook: Three Trends Shaping the Next Phase
Looking ahead, three dynamics will define the streaming industry's trajectory through the late 2020s.
First, revenue per user will matter more than user count. Platforms that have already built broad subscriber bases — Netflix, YouTube Premium, Amazon Prime Video — will increasingly differentiate on content investment, personalization quality, and bundle economics.
Second, advertising integration will become a core platform competency, not an afterthought. As more subscribers migrate to or enter via ad-supported tiers, the ability to deliver targeted, measurable, brand-safe advertising at scale becomes a competitive moat.
Third, international markets will carry a disproportionate share of future growth. Saturation in North America and Western Europe means that the next hundred million subscribers will come from Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
These emerging markets are characterized by mobile-first consumption, price sensitivity, and highly localized content preferences. Platforms and their technology partners that invest early in these geographies will have a structural advantage over those that wait for domestic growth to return.
That being said, I believe the global video streaming market has grown up. It is now a significant sector defined more by financial discipline than by subscriber ambition; and the media executives who recognize this shift earliest will be best positioned to compete in the decade ahead.