Prediction markets have stopped behaving like a betting curiosity and started behaving like market infrastructure. Executives who still file them under gambling are working from a stale map, and so are many of the regulators trying to govern them. A new Juniper Research market study gives prediction markets substantial attention, and its core message for decision-makers is that legitimacy, not demand, is now the binding constraint. Volume Has Outrun the Rulebook Juniper Research reports that combined monthly volume across Kalshi and Polymarket stood below $5 billion in September 2025 and reached roughly $24 billion by April 2026. Around the FIFA World Cup, a single month surpassed $50 billion, roughly matching the entire regulated U.S. sports betting handle for 2025. That is close to a tenfold climb in under a year, and it happened in full public view. Institutional Capital Has Taken a Position Intercontinental Exchange, parent of the New York Stock Exchange, committed $1 billion to Po...
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