Digital Lifescapes

Hopes for Telco triple-play go back some time, observed Phil Corman, Director of Microsoft TV, and as the US West Choice TV & Online service demonstrated, the results have been disappointing -- So why now? For telcos, it is becoming a matter of simple survival, said Corman, and compared to earlier efforts, this time the technology is ready. An important starting point, said Corman, is to consider what IPTV is not. �IPTV is not video streaming over the Internet, watching TV on your PC or merely a best-efforts video service. It has to be based on a proven business model.� Corman believes a key to the new paradigm will be the Electronic Program Guide that allows users to navigate the service. One of the benchmarks for enabling IPTV is the establishment of a viable ecosystem of technology suppliers and content providers. Microsoft�s recently announced strategic partnership with Alcatel is aimed at achieving this goal, explained Corman. Microsoft�s other IPTV partners include Tandber...

An open network architecture for IPTV has its integration challenges, but prevents vendor lock-in, said Bill DeMuth, CTO of Surewest Communications, in a keynote address at the IPTV 20005 conference -- Surewest has been delivering Triple Play services since July 2002, and IP video since January 2004. The company�s fiber network passes about 70,000 homes and has over 16,000 FTTP subscribers. The active fiber network delivers 100 Mbps Ethernet to each home. Surewest also operates a copper network and has just started to deploy ADSL2+. The IPTV service provides the choice of 260 channels of content, over 75 premium channels, 25 international channels, Pay-per-View and VoD services. �At this point, the market drivers for deploying IPTV are clear,� said DeMuth. These include the desire to retain current customers and reduce churn, acquire new customers, create new revenue streams, and increase the take-rate for all services. Customer demand really exists. For telcos, there is a window of op...

Globally, operators can expect to see the level of revenues contributed by data traffic to rise from 12 percent in 2005 to 18 percent in 2010, according to Mobile Content and Services , a new report from Informa Telecoms and Media -- "Currently, the global market for mobile data services and content is worth in excess of $71 billion. Operators have seen steadily declining voice revenues year on year caused by an increasingly competitive marketplace, coupled with an increasingly demanding subscriber base. It is expected that over the next five years this decline in voice ARPU will be offset somewhat by data revenues as operators finally start to realise the potential of the huge investments they made in mobile data networks. Person to person messaging currently represents the largest proportion of an operator�s data revenues, and by 2010 will contribute in excess of $87 billion to the their coffers."

Verizon has announced the expansion of its Fiber To The Premise (FTTP) network and FiOS Internet service in California -- "The company is now deploying fiber cable in Ventura county, as well as in the cities of Adelanto, Apple Valley, Bermuda Dunes, Camarillo, Chino, Desert Hot Springs, Hermosa Beach, Indio, La Quinta, Chino Hills, Ontario, Palm Springs, Perris, Lake Elsinore, Temecula, Redondo Beach and Victorville. Some customers in these cities can already order FiOS. Additional cities will be added next year, and Verizon will announce FiOS Internet Service in these areas as it becomes available. To date, Verizon has deployed 8 million feet, or 1,500 miles, of fiber-optic cable in Southern California as part of the FTTP project. The company will deploy millions more feet of fiber cable infrastructure during the remainder of 2005."

According to the Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA), Wi-Fi and WiMAX infrastructure revenues for the U.S. market are forecast to reach $5.2 billion and $115 million by the end of 2005, respectively. The Wi-Fi market will continue to grow as the number of hotspots proliferates, and the emerging WiMAX equipment market would also add to market growth. TIA expects revenues from capital spending on Wi-Fi and WiMAX within the U.S. to reach an estimated $22.3 billion in 2005, rising to $29.3 billion by 2008, at a compound annual gain of 7.1 percent. Spending on Wi-Fi services in the U.S. reached $21 million in 2004 and the TIA expects spending to increase to $45 million in 2005, rising at 99.9 percent CAGR to $335 million by 2008. The number of U.S. Wi-Fi hotspots increased from 3,400 in 2002 to 21,500 in 2004. The TIA expects that the number of Wi-Fi hotspots to rise from 32,800 this year to 64,200 in 2008, rising at 31.5 percent CAGR.

First quarter U.S. video game sales rose 23% over the same period a year ago, to $2.2 billion, while total unit sales climbed 18% to 63 million units, according to a report from market research firm NPD Group. The figures include sales of video game consoles and handhelds, in addition to game software for these platforms. Portable game hardware showed the most growth, rising 162% to $293 million -- fueled by the Nintendo DS and Sony PSP -- while console hardware and software saw more modest gains of 8% and 7%, respectively. Total console software sales exceeded $1 billion. "While we expected to see impressive sales in the portable categories, the fact that all categories saw positive sales growth in terms of both dollars and units is a real testament to the broadening appeal of video games as a form of entertainment," said NPD analyst Anita Frazier. The ten top-selling game titles for the first three months of 2005 included Sony's Gran Turismo 4 in the top spot, Take-Two...

Both terrestrial and satellite-based digital multimedia broadcasting services are finally set to launch commercially over the next few months in South Korea -- "According to research from international intelligence research firm ABI Research, the strife between competing stakeholders will only continue once services launch. More than a year later than expected, Korea's TU Media will launch its satellite-based commercial DMB (Digital Multimedia Broadcasting) services in May, while the following month, terrestrial DMB services will also launch, led by the country's major cable news, radio, and television broadcasters. ABI Research does expect the total number of terrestrial DMB subscribers to be significantly higher than satellite DMB subscribers, as terrestrial-based services will be free and feature better programming. However, it will be challenging for terrestrial DMB broadcasters to come up with successful revenue models, so they have been petitioning the government to ...

Tier One US Providers' Immature Offers Hope To Morph In 2005 -- According to Forrester Research "The current generation of softswitch-based hosted VoIP services is aptly, but not perfectly, suited to meet the needs of small and medium-size businesses (SMBs). Currently, they are ill-equipped to meet many fundamental enterprise requirements. For example, none is geographically ubiquitous. However, this service is not stillborn. Distinctions between the three major providers are emerging, such as the ability to support soft clients/softphones, integration with wireless services, and the availability of unified messaging. Each tier one hosted VoIP service provider plans major service enhancements this year. When combined with the prospect that more tier one providers plan to enter the market this year, 2006 could be a turning point in business use of managed voice services � but only if providers make services truly enterprise-class."

China's Residential Subscriber Base Will Triple by 2010 -- "Driven by explosive growth in China, the number of homes using broadband Internet services in the Asia-Pacific region will grow from 61 million today to 176 million by 2010, according to a new Strategy Analytics forecast, Residential Broadband Internet Service in the Asia-Pacific Region: Market Outlook & Analysis . The firm predicts that although China trails other Asian markets in broadband adoption today, the immense size of the Chinese consumer market will make it a key driver for broadband growth in the region. By 2010, the Chinese market will account for 64 percent of all residential broadband users in the region, up from less than 40 percent today. The Asia-Pacific region also includes countries that already lead the world in broadband adoption. 77 percent of homes in South Korea use broadband today, while Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore all boast penetration rates of 50 percent or more. In these mature mark...

Revealing how IP (Internet Protocol) and GBE (Gigabit Ethernet) upgrades will support new services -- "A study from MRG shows how the eight largest U.S. cable MSOs (Multi System Operators) are sequencing and prioritizing new services to address triple-play threats from Satellite and emerging Telco competition. Although Wall Street recently financed over $65 billion in infrastructure upgrades for cable (spending roughly $1000 per subscriber), MSOs are now having to finance further upgrades to deploy VOIP (voice over IP), enhanced HSD (High Speed Data), VOD (Video on Demand), advanced DVRs (Digital Video Recorders), and related Interactive (iTV) services. In the process of adding new services, MSOs have also discovered the problematic silo effect of running simultaneous -- but independent -- IP and non-IP services, adding significant complexities and costs."

Movielink and Verizon announced the launch of a co-branded movie downloading service for Verizon Online's consumer broadband subscribers -- "Verizon Online's consumer DSL and FiOS Internet Service customers can now purchase and download movies to watch at home or on-the-go through this special agreement with Movielink. The new service offers a full library of titles, including a special selection of hit films for 99 cents or less from Movielink, the first broadband video-on-demand (VOD) service to offer hundreds of major motion pictures for legitimate download. A broadband connection is required to download the movie, but once it's on their hard drive, users can view it at any time from home or on the road without being connected."

According to In-Stat, while Peer-2-Peer and piracy issues have not entirely disappeared, consumers are showing heightened awareness and interest in legitimate online music services -- "The worldwide online music market is expected to grow 134% this year, reaching $1 billion for the first time. With increased competition between sites this year, differentiation will be a key strategy. Sites are building larger catalogs and working with labels to offer new types of digital content, such as live concerts and remixes. In addition, branding and customer loyalty will be a primary focus. In-Stat's survey found that the average amount spent in the past year for online music was $25. Over half of the survey respondents who have downloaded music from the Internet admitted to not paying for it. And, 35% of the respondents are owners of an MP3 player, with 70% saying it was their first one."

North American Mobile Market Consolidation Decreases Operator CAPEX by $2.5 Billion says Pyramid Research -- "The wave of mobile operator consolidation in North America will reduce infrastructure expenditures by $2.5 billion during the 2005-2009 period according to the latest Pyramid Research forecasts. Through the combination of networks, the New Cingular will reduce CAPEX by $5 billion over a five year period compared to AT&T and Cingular�s combined CAPEX projections compiled last year. Similarly, the merger of Canada�s Rogers and Microcell will result in a $170 million decrease in equipment investment. Dampening the impact on equipment sales from market consolidation is greater than expected increases in minutes of use and subscriber uptake. Pyramid concludes, the recent activity is a hit to equipment vendors that can be countered by landing service contracts for network management and other services."

A Flood of Low-Spending Users Dilute Profit Margins -- "The latest quarterly Strategy Analytics wireless operator benchmarking study indicates potentially serious global operator profit slides, as global margins fell below 40 percent for the first time in eight quarters. While subscriber volumes rose by 24 percent, year on year EBITDA was up by less than 4 percent, resulting in a 15 percent decline in average margins per user (AMPU). Globally, AMPU among the operators fell by 15 percent over the previous year, to a low of $11.54 in Q4 2004, from 2003's $15-plus figure. The heaviest declines were in Central & Eastern Europe and Asia-Pacific, both regions where exceptionally high subscriber growth among lower-value customers has outstripped profitability. Even more mature markets have not been immune to AMPU declines, with 3 percent declines in North America and Western Europe as competitive pressures and, in the case of Europe, regulatory interconnect rate cuts, left their ...

Verizon has launched an Enhanced Communities project aimed at signing-up the developers of single-family residential communities to promote its FTTH initiative -- "Verizon offers developers the opportunity to market voice service, FiOS high-speed Internet Service at up to 30 megabits per second, and FiOS TV service over the fiber cables. Verizon's digital TV package is under development now, for introduction to the market later this year. More than a dozen such marketing agreements have already been signed, including Pulte Homes, Pardee Homes and KB Home, as well as partnering with several large developments in Southern California and Northern Virginia. The Enhanced Communities Group has recruited a dedicated sales team from an existing Verizon sales team."

Telecommunications firms Verizon and SBC Communications, which are preparing to launch Internet-based video services, argued for looser regulations for such expanded services at a hearing Wednesday before the House Subcommittee on Telecommunications -- "The FCC and Congress have so far employed a light-touch approach to regulating the Internet and IP-based services," testified SBC senior executive vice president Lee Ann Champion. "We are not building a cable network, nor do we have any interest in being a cable company offering traditional cable service. Instead, we intend to offer customers a new total communications experience." Later this year, Verizon plans to launch an Internet-based TV service called FiOS TV , which it hopes to offer to 3 million homes by the end of the year. It has already signed up NBC Universal and Starz to provide content for the service. SBC has invested $4 billion in its Project Lightspeed , which aims to deploy services including IPTV t...

ABI Research suggests HSDPA as a Low-Cost Path to Fast Mobile Broadband -- "Mobile communications infrastructure vendors and carriers, impatiently waiting to offer their customers mobile broadband services, would do well to consider HSDPA (High-Speed Downlink Packet Access) as an economical alternative. The prerequisites, according to ABI Research, are the rollouts of the next-generation UMTS networks that are starting to take place in Europe and Asia, and are planned for other regions. The area covered by these networks should expand and fill out very quickly starting in about 12 months, according to ABI Research. The arrival of this technology should boost data traffic and revenues, as well as demand for data cards. What about WiMAX's promise of ubiquitous broadband? IEEE 802.16e will most likely be offered mainly in dense metropolitan areas, and while it will be faster than HSDPA, and cheaper per bit, the upfront deployment costs are much, much higher."

According to ABI Research, it's An Open and Shut Case -- "When the US Congressional Subcommittee on Courts, the Internet and Intellectual property invited testimony from four industry experts, they were considering nothing less than the future of digital rights management in the United States. At issue are proprietary versus open digital rights management (DRM) technologies, and whether governments should get involved. Advocates say that open DRM standards would help the portable industry. Most industry leaders are adopting a government hands off attitude, but ABI believes that other attempts at proprietary DRM schemes probably wouldn't succeed. Apple was the first to offer such a service and the content industry didn't care if their DRM was proprietary. But DRM becomes critical once video, and sharing between STBs and portable devices, become a reality."

The new IP TV Market Leader Report measures the competitive position of 62 suppliers for 223 service providers -- "Some of the sector highlights include surprises: in the Middleware sector, Microsoft joined forces with Alcatel, winning long-term contracts with SBC in the U.S. In Set-top Boxes, while competition remains balanced among multiple suppliers, such as Motorola, Pace, Amino, Kreatel, i3 and others, Yuxing gained strength in Asia based on its deployment in PCCW/Hong Kong. In VOD Servers, while Kasenna and Bitband maintained leadership in North America and Europe, respectively, Entone won a big contract with PCCW (Hong Kong), which strengthened its position in China. In Access Hardware, while Motorola maintained dominance in small U.S. independent telcos, its global market position slipped due in part to the industry trend towards Gigabit Ethernet/IP and away from its ATM technology. In the Content Protection sector, Widevine has taken a strong position in Asia and North ...

In-Stat research reveals that cell phone users have mixed feelings about predicted new handset features -- "According to a proprietary survey of cell phone users by the high tech research firm, Wi-Fi- and Skype-enabled handsets, voice activation for text input, and mapping and traffic routing features resonate well. However, few respondents expressed interest in wireless phones that could be used as a wallet for purchases, or for watching TV programs. 42% of the respondents were very or extremely interested in voice activation for their wireless phones. More than 4 in 10 were very or extremely interested in buying a wireless phone with built-in Wi-Fi for voice and data. Just 12% had an interest in buying a wireless phone capable of receiving TV broadcasts. The report, Future Cell Phones: The Big Trends, 2005-2010 , forecasts when new trends in mobile phone features and services are likely to take off."